5 ms·

I picture that vertical M2 supply graph from March 2020 whenever I hear ‘overvalued’ when it comes to real assets. The money has changed, not the property. I’m

I picture that vertical M2 supply graph from March 2020 whenever I hear ‘overvalued’ when it comes to real assets. The money has changed, not the property. I’m now curious how undervalued it really is and what a huge accounting trick it was to play on everyone over the past two years.

jjcon 4y ago
Its because they changed the definition of m2 in may 2020 not because anything fundamentally changed - not sure why people keep thinking this. >Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  I believe that m1 is what changed. m2 involves adding m1, so the formula changed, but if you break it down it did not.
- cjmb 4y ago
  You can use the old definitions too and see the same effect: https://gonzoecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/chart-line-chart-description-automatically-gener-7.jpeg https://gonzoecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/chart-line-... The change increased M1 by moving common components of M2 downstream into M1. It's why M2 is all anyone should track. And a "definition change" is not in fact the primary reason for a large increase in the money supply in 2020. Smart source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-rec... Gonzo source: https://gonzoecon.com/2021/04/m1-and-m2-have-changed/ https://gonzoecon.com/2021/04/m1-and-m2-have-changed/
- anm89 4y ago
  Are You trying to argue that nothing happened in 2020 that caused us to increase the money supply?? We did 4 trillion in stimulus while doing the hardest quantitative easing we have ever done. You are unbelievably far off base.
- throwaway48375 4y ago
  We have a fractional reserve banking system. What was the reserve rate set at in 2020?

jjcon 4y ago

Its because they changed the definition of m2 in may 2020 not because anything fundamentally changed - not sure why people keep thinking this. >Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

colinmhayes 4y ago
I believe that m1 is what changed. m2 involves adding m1, so the formula changed, but if you break it down it did not.
cjmb 4y ago
You can use the old definitions too and see the same effect: https://gonzoecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/chart-line-chart-description-automatically-gener-7.jpeg https://gonzoecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/chart-line-... The change increased M1 by moving common components of M2 downstream into M1. It's why M2 is all anyone should track. And a "definition change" is not in fact the primary reason for a large increase in the money supply in 2020. Smart source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-rec... Gonzo source: https://gonzoecon.com/2021/04/m1-and-m2-have-changed/ https://gonzoecon.com/2021/04/m1-and-m2-have-changed/
anm89 4y ago
Are You trying to argue that nothing happened in 2020 that caused us to increase the money supply?? We did 4 trillion in stimulus while doing the hardest quantitative easing we have ever done. You are unbelievably far off base.
throwaway48375 4y ago
We have a fractional reserve banking system. What was the reserve rate set at in 2020?