4 ms·

US sees largest productivity drop since 1947 [pdf]

51 points by ren_engineer 4y ago

whatshisface 4y ago
The title is misleading - the productivity drop in Q1 2022 is almost equal to the increase in Q4 2021. Together, they average out. This is visible on the first graph, where two roughly equal bars go up and down on the right hand (near-present) side. Overall productivity seems to be up since 2020, according to the hours worked / output series in chart 3. Output had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2021, but hours worked did not - leading to an improved productivity ratio as the BLS calculates it.
- PenguinCoder 4y ago
  It fits the narrative of getting employees back into the office; because WFH employees are unproductive, just look at this study.
  - whatshisface 4y ago
    That is why Chart 3 is especially ironic, it shows productivity recovering before hours worked. (I wouldn't over-interpret this though, I don't know how any of these statistics are calculated.)
  - dijonman2 4y ago
    What? There is no such thing, WFH employees are more productive without interruption.
    - tamaharbor 4y ago
      Until Judge Judy starts.
    - PenguinCoder 4y ago
      I know that, you know that, other WFH employees know that. My comment above was tongue-in-cheek; it's studies and reports like the linked PDF that management and Clevel will use to delude themselves and employees to comeback into the office.
      - dallasg3 4y ago
        I was wondering who Clevel was before I realized you meant C-level.
      - zo1 4y ago
        I vote for a compromise. We stop pushing for WFH and instead demand for dedicated office space. Individual offices where we have a home away from home and enough privacy. The amount of times I had to hold a fart in, struggle to pick my nose, or put on loud earphones just to focus in an open plan office is unacceptable.
        hhh 4y ago
        My individual dedicated office is at my house. I don’t want to drive any amount of time to sit in a room at a computer and do the same thing. Sometimes I want to work elsewhere, and will go to the park or just sit in a parking lot somewhere. The only benefit I see to physical proximity is the unexpected encounters that can help resolve business situations or help ideas flourish.
        patrick451 4y ago
        I'd actually strongly prefer to work from the office if I actually had an office. But basically all employers insist on these horrendous open office plans these days, so WFH it is.
        vdqtp3 4y ago
        I'll go into the office when I'm paid for both commute time and lunch.
  - bgro 4y ago
    "Nobody wants to work anymore, and I can't do my job from my beach house because I can't see the employees on the office camera and they're covering their camera at home. How can we re-tell this productivity data that shows productivity is increasing to prove that I'm right and everyone is lazy except me?"
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
bitshiftfaced 4y ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB# The last big bump came after the great recession. Labor got squeezed out by necessity. This time, it's almost like the reverse. We worked drastically less hours right at the beginning, but output didn't fall in lockstep. Productivity increased, but has dragged its feet since more and more people reenter the workforce. If you zoom out, the pace looks on track with the overall trend before COVID, so perhaps it's just a neutral outcome with no major takeaways.
alexfromapex 4y ago
Can’t speak for everyone but if salaries don’t start tracking with inflation I see no reason to work hard
- MrWiffles 4y ago
  Totally agree, with one slight tweak: add "cost of housing and food" to that. The former rises faster than inflation and has been for decades.
  - phendrenad2 4y ago
    Someone in the government really pulled off a slick move when they managed to disconnect "inflation" from "increases in the cost of housing and food", didn't they?
crate_barre 4y ago
Someone break down how they are calculating productivity. Agile story points???
- somenameforme 4y ago
  The relative change in the number of goods/services for sell. This is determined by taking the $ output and then dividing by regularly adjusted industry specific normalizing factors to try to convert $ to quantity. Labor productivity (what this article is mentioning) is then further divided by total hours worked across all considered industries.
- _hcuq 4y ago
  It’s turtles all the way down.

51 points by ren_engineer 4y ago

The title is misleading - the productivity drop in Q1 2022 is almost equal to the increase in Q4 2021. Together, they average out. This is visible on the first graph, where two roughly equal bars go up and down on the right hand (near-present) side. Overall productivity seems to be up since 2020, according to the hours worked / output series in chart 3. Output had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2021, but hours worked did not - leading to an improved productivity ratio as the BLS calculates it.

PenguinCoder 4y ago
It fits the narrative of getting employees back into the office; because WFH employees are unproductive, just look at this study.
- whatshisface 4y ago
  That is why Chart 3 is especially ironic, it shows productivity recovering before hours worked. (I wouldn't over-interpret this though, I don't know how any of these statistics are calculated.)
- dijonman2 4y ago
  What? There is no such thing, WFH employees are more productive without interruption.
  - tamaharbor 4y ago
    Until Judge Judy starts.
  - PenguinCoder 4y ago
    I know that, you know that, other WFH employees know that. My comment above was tongue-in-cheek; it's studies and reports like the linked PDF that management and Clevel will use to delude themselves and employees to comeback into the office.
    - dallasg3 4y ago
      I was wondering who Clevel was before I realized you meant C-level.
    - zo1 4y ago
      I vote for a compromise. We stop pushing for WFH and instead demand for dedicated office space. Individual offices where we have a home away from home and enough privacy. The amount of times I had to hold a fart in, struggle to pick my nose, or put on loud earphones just to focus in an open plan office is unacceptable.
      - hhh 4y ago
        My individual dedicated office is at my house. I don’t want to drive any amount of time to sit in a room at a computer and do the same thing. Sometimes I want to work elsewhere, and will go to the park or just sit in a parking lot somewhere. The only benefit I see to physical proximity is the unexpected encounters that can help resolve business situations or help ideas flourish.
      - patrick451 4y ago
        I'd actually strongly prefer to work from the office if I actually had an office. But basically all employers insist on these horrendous open office plans these days, so WFH it is.
      - vdqtp3 4y ago
        I'll go into the office when I'm paid for both commute time and lunch.
- bgro 4y ago
  "Nobody wants to work anymore, and I can't do my job from my beach house because I can't see the employees on the office camera and they're covering their camera at home. How can we re-tell this productivity data that shows productivity is increasing to prove that I'm right and everyone is lazy except me?"
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

bitshiftfaced 4y ago

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB# The last big bump came after the great recession. Labor got squeezed out by necessity. This time, it's almost like the reverse. We worked drastically less hours right at the beginning, but output didn't fall in lockstep. Productivity increased, but has dragged its feet since more and more people reenter the workforce. If you zoom out, the pace looks on track with the overall trend before COVID, so perhaps it's just a neutral outcome with no major takeaways.

alexfromapex 4y ago

Can’t speak for everyone but if salaries don’t start tracking with inflation I see no reason to work hard

MrWiffles 4y ago
Totally agree, with one slight tweak: add "cost of housing and food" to that. The former rises faster than inflation and has been for decades.
- phendrenad2 4y ago
  Someone in the government really pulled off a slick move when they managed to disconnect "inflation" from "increases in the cost of housing and food", didn't they?

crate_barre 4y ago

Someone break down how they are calculating productivity. Agile story points???

somenameforme 4y ago
The relative change in the number of goods/services for sell. This is determined by taking the $ output and then dividing by regularly adjusted industry specific normalizing factors to try to convert $ to quantity. Labor productivity (what this article is mentioning) is then further divided by total hours worked across all considered industries.
_hcuq 4y ago
It’s turtles all the way down.