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Just want to clarify that I am personally against invading any country. But Russia did indeed invade this country, so I am brainstorming as to what their equati

by fosk 4y ago

Just want to clarify that I am personally against invading any country. But Russia did indeed invade this country, so I am brainstorming as to what their equation may be. Russia is after all a rational actor on the world stage, and they must have thought the benefits are stronger than the cons.

jollybean 4y ago
The problem with your line of thinking is that you are framing their 'rationality' as though they are a Western country. It is 'rational' in Russian to invade a former colony, because they should be dominated by Russia. 75% of the elite are good with that, 50% of the population and the rest will be mostly indifferent in the end. Russia obviously does not want NATO expansion but they are not afraid of it, and NATO 'on their borders' is not an existential concern. Much like Putin set the 'red lines' for intervention and is destroying a nation saying 'others cannot be involved but we can' - his propaganda has you in the same 'mental bubble' - thinking about 'NATO' while he does the unthinkable. Russia also has no interest in telling the truth - they lie, lie, lie. Their diplomacy is entire a function of leverage. Your taking the intellectual posture of an abused person, listening to the excuses of 'why he had to abuse you' etc.. Again - if you want to understand, just read Putin's own words [1]. He does not view Ukraine as a 'place'. He views Ukraine as basically part of 'greater russia' and that 'Ukraine' is not real. Also, read McFaul's thesis about NATO and Russia. [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 [2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...
- trasz 4y ago
  To me reading this guy was immensely useful for understanding Russian way of thought: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 - starting with demographic, https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619.

by fosk 4y ago

jollybean 4y ago

The problem with your line of thinking is that you are framing their 'rationality' as though they are a Western country. It is 'rational' in Russian to invade a former colony, because they should be dominated by Russia. 75% of the elite are good with that, 50% of the population and the rest will be mostly indifferent in the end. Russia obviously does not want NATO expansion but they are not afraid of it, and NATO 'on their borders' is not an existential concern. Much like Putin set the 'red lines' for intervention and is destroying a nation saying 'others cannot be involved but we can' - his propaganda has you in the same 'mental bubble' - thinking about 'NATO' while he does the unthinkable. Russia also has no interest in telling the truth - they lie, lie, lie. Their diplomacy is entire a function of leverage. Your taking the intellectual posture of an abused person, listening to the excuses of 'why he had to abuse you' etc.. Again - if you want to understand, just read Putin's own words [1]. He does not view Ukraine as a 'place'. He views Ukraine as basically part of 'greater russia' and that 'Ukraine' is not real. Also, read McFaul's thesis about NATO and Russia. [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 [2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...

trasz 4y ago
To me reading this guy was immensely useful for understanding Russian way of thought: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 - starting with demographic, https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619.