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I think it is rather easy to say that the rapid buildout of more and more fabrication plants may be fruitless if the entire industry is still going to rely excl
by BirAdam 5y ago
I think it is rather easy to say that the rapid buildout of more and more fabrication plants may be fruitless if the entire industry is still going to rely exclusively on ASML for EUV and even more so if there are no new ingot providers. Apparently, the fab companies know something we do not in those regards. Beyond that, while we are facing high demand now and low supply, a ton of new fabs will increase supply and… possibly crash the market. This is especially true as AMD and Intel now face greater competition not just from one another but also from RISC-V, ARM, Power, and Hygon. These competitive pressures will erode the margins and thereby also the incentives.
- totalZero 5y agoEUV and raw materials aren't the bottlenecks, with respect to most devices. There's a correlation effect whereby a shortage of minor components will halt assembly of finished products, so the tail risk scenario likely starts with more mundane chips (legacy nodes, 200mm wafer) rather than flagship processors on leading-edge nodes.
- flyinglizard 5y agoThe problem is in much more mundane ICs than cutting EUV stuff. Power regulators, converters, microcontrollers from a year back or 10 years back, everything.