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I love dropbox (use it daily, but only the free version). To be honest I think this decision will probably be looked on as a mistake. Personally, I'm moving to

I love dropbox (use it daily, but only the free version). To be honest I think this decision will probably be looked on as a mistake. Personally, I'm moving to iCloud soon. The reason for this is that it will enable syncing of the notoriously closed Apps and music that come with Apple. The non-apple crowd will not see this benefit, but once Google or Facebook decide they want to be in the cloud storage game too, Dropbox is going to find themselves squeezed between players that can pour money into this space. Dropbox is already not competitive on price, that much is certain. It's only a matter of time before their primary attribute (seamless usability) is duplicated enough to erode their base. They should really look to sell, not try to build an empire. The numbers and/or culture with Apple might not have been right, but this should really be their primary goal. If it isn't, I hate to say that the very best they could hope for is to be a niche player in a space that will be a commodity in 2-5 years.

ernestipark 15y ago
I think people are taking a very narrow minded view of Dropbox. You're absolutely right that iCloud, potential entries of Google or other big players could hurt Dropbox and be competitive. However you have to imagine Dropbox is looking beyond "just file syncing" on client computers. Do you think when Jobs re-joined Apple, he was thinking "lets make Apple a better computer company". Dropbox gave an info session/tech-talk at MIT recently (which they do often), and talked about how they want to be the "Filesystem of the internet". With the money they've raised recently, and the ferocious hiring they're doing, you have to imagine they have plans to move into other spaces that might not necessarily be exactly client/cloud file syncing. I'd gander they have other aspirations and ways to make Dropbox as a platform be pervasive throughout the internet. Dropbox can focus on this one thing. Google can offer space for super cheap, but I can't see them attacking this large problem from as many angles as Dropbox can, since it's the "one" thing they do. This is all speculation, but I don't suspect Dropbox is going to sit complacently in the space they're in with potential pressure coming from so many competitors. Also, iCloud's goal seems to be more to lock users into Apple products rather than be a great file syncing service. Photos off my iPhone get synced to iPhoto, rather than a folder I designate on my computer (ironically, a Dropbox folder). But to be fair, I haven't dived too deep into what I can do with iCloud yet.
- run4yourlives 15y ago
  I don't disagree with you re: iCloud, as that Apple's MO in all their actions. However I can only gauge risk based on what I can see. It's possible that dropbox can revolutionize some new space that changes the equation, but this isn't evident right now, nor is it easily foreseen to be imminent. Given that, it doesn't look like a viable strategy for them, at least from my removed vantage point.
  - erikpukinskis 15y ago
    Did you factor this into your strategy viability assessment?: If DropBox sold to Apple, they'd be out of The Game. Instead of carving out their own niche, with the thrill and risk that goes with it, they'd be supporting a game that Apple has already defined, and is winning. They wouldn't be able to gallop forward towards a future of their choosing, with competitors making them Better from all sides, they'd be IT support for the iApps division. Do you factor the love of entrepreneurship into your equation?
    - chubs 15y ago
      But here's the thing: if i had sold out for almost a billion, you could either see that as a retirement, or you could see it as a platform that you can use for even bigger entrepreneurial projects? Ie with that kind of money behind you, you can take on, say, healthcare or something much bigger. There can be more to it than 'if i take the money, i'm forced to spend the rest of my days on a yacht, enjoying life but wasting away'. At least that'd be how i'd justify selling out to myself :)
      - erikpukinskis 15y ago
        Most "bigger entrepreneurial projects" are built on a platform that includes BOTH money AND a sustainable core business. Think Microsoft's BASIC compiler, Odeo, the Tesla Roadster, etc. I think many founders who sell out realize that the latter is often the harder of the two to procure. You are correct, though, if your goal is buy a yacht you should sell when that becomes possible.
hristov 15y ago
Dropbox have nothing to worry about from apple thus far. Yeah icloud may be good for people that have their entire lives in apple products. But those people are relatively few. The vast majority of people use different platforms and do not want to be tied down to a single vendor. As long as Apple continue their tradition of (i) completely ignoring linux and (ii) making some of the worst windows software ever made, Dropbox have nothing to worry about. Facebook is a non factor. Given Facebooks innovative stands on privacy I doubt anyone sane would let facebook keep their files. Google would be a much bigger concern, but thus far Google have been extremely slow on this front, they seem to be tied up in some grand strategy/architecture dreaming, so they have been a non-factor thus far. I would say Dropbox's future depends mostly on Google's ability to get their heads out of the clouds forget all their grand world domination strategies and build something that works right now. So yes there are a lot of potential competitors but each one of them carries a lot of architectural and strategy baggage and the entire point of dropbox is to avoid all of that stuff. So I think their chances of success are not bad at all.
ChuckMcM 15y ago
Time will tell of course. Sort of like Groupon turning down Google's 6B$ offer, might have been a good thing, might have been majorly stupid. (And of course '9 digit' includes $100,000,000) There is a lot to like about Dropbox, but you really really can't just brush off the installed base of Apple. If anyone has their customers by the short and curlies Apple does.

ernestipark 15y ago

I think people are taking a very narrow minded view of Dropbox. You're absolutely right that iCloud, potential entries of Google or other big players could hurt Dropbox and be competitive. However you have to imagine Dropbox is looking beyond "just file syncing" on client computers. Do you think when Jobs re-joined Apple, he was thinking "lets make Apple a better computer company". Dropbox gave an info session/tech-talk at MIT recently (which they do often), and talked about how they want to be the "Filesystem of the internet". With the money they've raised recently, and the ferocious hiring they're doing, you have to imagine they have plans to move into other spaces that might not necessarily be exactly client/cloud file syncing. I'd gander they have other aspirations and ways to make Dropbox as a platform be pervasive throughout the internet. Dropbox can focus on this one thing. Google can offer space for super cheap, but I can't see them attacking this large problem from as many angles as Dropbox can, since it's the "one" thing they do. This is all speculation, but I don't suspect Dropbox is going to sit complacently in the space they're in with potential pressure coming from so many competitors. Also, iCloud's goal seems to be more to lock users into Apple products rather than be a great file syncing service. Photos off my iPhone get synced to iPhoto, rather than a folder I designate on my computer (ironically, a Dropbox folder). But to be fair, I haven't dived too deep into what I can do with iCloud yet.

run4yourlives 15y ago
I don't disagree with you re: iCloud, as that Apple's MO in all their actions. However I can only gauge risk based on what I can see. It's possible that dropbox can revolutionize some new space that changes the equation, but this isn't evident right now, nor is it easily foreseen to be imminent. Given that, it doesn't look like a viable strategy for them, at least from my removed vantage point.
- erikpukinskis 15y ago
  Did you factor this into your strategy viability assessment?: If DropBox sold to Apple, they'd be out of The Game. Instead of carving out their own niche, with the thrill and risk that goes with it, they'd be supporting a game that Apple has already defined, and is winning. They wouldn't be able to gallop forward towards a future of their choosing, with competitors making them Better from all sides, they'd be IT support for the iApps division. Do you factor the love of entrepreneurship into your equation?
  - chubs 15y ago
    But here's the thing: if i had sold out for almost a billion, you could either see that as a retirement, or you could see it as a platform that you can use for even bigger entrepreneurial projects? Ie with that kind of money behind you, you can take on, say, healthcare or something much bigger. There can be more to it than 'if i take the money, i'm forced to spend the rest of my days on a yacht, enjoying life but wasting away'. At least that'd be how i'd justify selling out to myself :)
    - erikpukinskis 15y ago
      Most "bigger entrepreneurial projects" are built on a platform that includes BOTH money AND a sustainable core business. Think Microsoft's BASIC compiler, Odeo, the Tesla Roadster, etc. I think many founders who sell out realize that the latter is often the harder of the two to procure. You are correct, though, if your goal is buy a yacht you should sell when that becomes possible.

hristov 15y ago

Dropbox have nothing to worry about from apple thus far. Yeah icloud may be good for people that have their entire lives in apple products. But those people are relatively few. The vast majority of people use different platforms and do not want to be tied down to a single vendor. As long as Apple continue their tradition of (i) completely ignoring linux and (ii) making some of the worst windows software ever made, Dropbox have nothing to worry about. Facebook is a non factor. Given Facebooks innovative stands on privacy I doubt anyone sane would let facebook keep their files. Google would be a much bigger concern, but thus far Google have been extremely slow on this front, they seem to be tied up in some grand strategy/architecture dreaming, so they have been a non-factor thus far. I would say Dropbox's future depends mostly on Google's ability to get their heads out of the clouds forget all their grand world domination strategies and build something that works right now. So yes there are a lot of potential competitors but each one of them carries a lot of architectural and strategy baggage and the entire point of dropbox is to avoid all of that stuff. So I think their chances of success are not bad at all.

ChuckMcM 15y ago

Time will tell of course. Sort of like Groupon turning down Google's 6B$ offer, might have been a good thing, might have been majorly stupid. (And of course '9 digit' includes $100,000,000) There is a lot to like about Dropbox, but you really really can't just brush off the installed base of Apple. If anyone has their customers by the short and curlies Apple does.