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Prometheus should be laser focused on being first to market in commercial quantities. There are people who want carbon neutral fuels today even if they are more

Prometheus should be laser focused on being first to market in commercial quantities. There are people who want carbon neutral fuels today even if they are more expensive than fossil fuels. Capture that entire market with v1 of the process even if it's $10/gallon. Take everything learned to make v2 at $7/gallon and v3 at $5/gallon etc... The goal of $3/gallon is pushing Prometheus down the rabbit hole. Waiting for the perfect factory, with the manufacturing methods, to produce the perfect machine that will immediately go into large scale production, and operate on an automated basis. I expect the company aiming at 10-7-5-3 will reach 3 there faster than the company aiming at 3 to start out with.

nyokodo 4y ago
> Capture that entire market with v1 of the process even if it's $10/gallon. Take everything learned to make v2 at $7/gallon and v3 at $5/gallon etc... Due to Russian oil drying up volatile high prices globally will be the norm until technology like this comes into play and at least puts a ceiling on the price. So, the real question is how quickly and how cheaply can they reach 4 million barrels per day of production?
- DennisP 4y ago
  And if Peter Zeihan is right, the loss of Russian exports is just the beginning of oil supply disruption over the next decade.
  - Iwan-Zotow 4y ago
    India and China are not losing any Russian imports
    - nyokodo 4y ago
      > India and China are not losing any Russian imports Russia cannot keep up production without the involvement of the likes of BP etc, so while China and India haven't boycotted Russia it won't matter before very long.
      - Iwan-Zotow 4y ago
        You know that e.g. BP production had fallen for last few years, right?
  - leobg 4y ago
    If I read just one book of this author, which should I read? Or if not a book, which podcast/video? Thank you.
    - kreeben 4y ago
      This one hour podcast really got me interested in Peter Zeihan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ&t=258s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ&t=258s His latest book is "The end of the world is only the beginning". I follow him through the YT channnel "GEOPOP".
      - leobg 4y ago
        Thank you!
    - DennisP 4y ago
      Geopop videos on youtube were my introduction, and are definitely the quickest way to get the gist. Then I started reading his books. Accidental Superpower is his first, from 2014, and is the best overall introduction. It doesn't just look at current events; he applies his approach to pretty much all the great civilizations of world history, starting with ancient Egypt. Well worth reading for that alone, it's amazing. Also covers modern day, and while it's a bit out of date now, the broad strokes haven't changed. This book includes a prediction that Russia would invade the rest of Ukraine right about now. If you read just one, make it this one. The next two books are entirely focused on present day. Absent Superpower from 2016 has two parts. The first is probably more information than you want about the shale revolution in the US, but he keeps it interesting. Then he writes about individual countries, with more of an energy focus. This one's obviously most relevant to the tech we're discussing here, which could change everything if it scales up soon enough. Now I'm partway through Disunited Nations, from 2020. This also goes country by country, and of course is the most up-to-date so far. He starts out with several chapters on China, and goes into more detail than the previous book on their situation, which is incredibly grim. Now I'm starting the next chapter, on Japan. His next book comes out in June. I think he mentioned in a video that he focuses more on the outlook for various industries.
_hypx 4y ago
The idea of synfuels, which is what this is, is not new. Many companies are pursuing this idea. Including Porsche: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/porsche-taking-stake-in-e-fuels-maker-highly-innovative-fuels-global.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/porsche-taking-stake-in-e-fu... There are two challenges to tackle here: First is to make it work at all, and second is to do it cheaper than what the competition can muster.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > There are two challenges to tackle Both of which are covered in the article.
db65edfc7996 4y ago
One thing that is unclear to me - are there items that need to be replaced/regenerated? The article says the costs are mostly capital. If true, on a long enough timeline, are you not just looking at entirely operational costs (sourcing water + electricity)?
- rmcginnis 4y ago
  Yes, only inputs are air and electricity. If you have an equipment payback of only a few years, then after that all fuel is close to opex only. Similar to solar itself.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  The chemical reagents are not consumed in operation, but they could be subject to contamination over time, and need to be replaced periodically.
rmcginnis 4y ago
$3.00 / gallon is our v 1.0 (before taxes)
- sien 4y ago
  Wow. If you hit that you're sorted in Europe. https://www.tolls.eu/fuel-prices https://www.tolls.eu/fuel-prices European prices seem to average about ~ EU 1.8 / litre or ~7.2 EU / Gallon or $US 7.6 / gallon. For C02 neutral fuel it would just work at that price.
  - Auracle 4y ago
    A very large portion of what Europeans pay for gas is tax.
    - PeterisP 4y ago
      Looking at local (EU) gas price structure, ~50% is the actual cost of fuel and the rest is excise tax, VAT, and expenses/profit. So $3/gal bulk cost would fit a $6/gal = 1.6 eur/litre retail price including all taxes, which would be competitive even without any subsidies that a CO2-neutral fuel might justify.
    - sien 4y ago
      Yes. Definitely. In most (all?) developed countries except the US fuel tax easily covers the costs of roads and subsidizes everything else. The EU is determined to reduce C02 emissions rapidly. If they want to do that they could cut their fuel taxes and use C02 neutral fuel and meet their targets much more easily. Not to mention cutting dependence on authoritarian states.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Presumably this stuff won't be taxed the same way. Taxes will need to be restructured so roads are paid for, maybe by vehicle licensing.
      - HyprMusic 4y ago
toast0 4y ago
Burried in the long post (as copied in the thread), it sounds like they are starting to move something to production, which they say will enable enough fuel to do demos and what not. Depending on what exactly that means when it happens, maybe they can start selling $10/gallon gasoline somewhere. If it's a turnkey fuel production device, I'm sure there's a market for hook up electricity in remote location and get a tank of fuel over time.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Tractor fuel produced at the foot of a wind turbine in the middle of a farmer's field, that doesn't need to be transported from a refinery, would have immediate value. Fences made of double-sided solar panels mounted a bit more than tractor-width apart, running N-S, coexist nicely with row crops, and cut water loss, improve conversion efficiency (via evaporative cooling), and often increase yield besides (via reduced heat stress). Producing fuel locally is better than selling the power and buying fuel. HH XX HH HH=XX=HH <--tractor HH XX HH crop XX | XX | <-panel/fence v HH | x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x
  - alex_young 4y ago
    Why not just make electric tractors? The energy efficiency of converting wind -> electricity -> fuel -> mechanical power has to be less efficient than wind -> electricity -> mechanical power right?
    - coderintherye 4y ago
      Solectrac is making electric tractors in production. They are available today (though waiting period between deposit and delivery).
      - ncmncm 4y ago
moistly 4y ago
Prometheus addresses this: > The thing is one cell doesn’t make that much fuel. What it does do is make enough to tell us what to do to iterate to the next cell design, which is exactly what we need to be doing to improve our performance and costs as quickly and inexpensively as possible. If we stopped this process to replicate one of the iterations of the cell to many cells, we could make more fuel, but we wouldn’t learn any more, we’d use up a lot of time and materials, and it wouldn’t prove that we can compete with fossil fuels on cost - the thing that matters.
mmazing 4y ago
They should release it under some sort of fair use model where they receive 10% of the profits of anyone using their technology. Then, there doesn't need to be any marketing and limiting of availability by only having one source of product. Product manufacturers would probably be ecstatic to generate products that have great use and public appeal, where all you need to do is be the first to be able to manufacture it.

nyokodo 4y ago

> Capture that entire market with v1 of the process even if it's $10/gallon. Take everything learned to make v2 at $7/gallon and v3 at $5/gallon etc... Due to Russian oil drying up volatile high prices globally will be the norm until technology like this comes into play and at least puts a ceiling on the price. So, the real question is how quickly and how cheaply can they reach 4 million barrels per day of production?

DennisP 4y ago
And if Peter Zeihan is right, the loss of Russian exports is just the beginning of oil supply disruption over the next decade.
- Iwan-Zotow 4y ago
  India and China are not losing any Russian imports
  - nyokodo 4y ago
    > India and China are not losing any Russian imports Russia cannot keep up production without the involvement of the likes of BP etc, so while China and India haven't boycotted Russia it won't matter before very long.
    - Iwan-Zotow 4y ago
      You know that e.g. BP production had fallen for last few years, right?
- leobg 4y ago
  If I read just one book of this author, which should I read? Or if not a book, which podcast/video? Thank you.
  - kreeben 4y ago
    This one hour podcast really got me interested in Peter Zeihan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ&t=258s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ&t=258s His latest book is "The end of the world is only the beginning". I follow him through the YT channnel "GEOPOP".
    - leobg 4y ago
      Thank you!
  - DennisP 4y ago
    Geopop videos on youtube were my introduction, and are definitely the quickest way to get the gist. Then I started reading his books. Accidental Superpower is his first, from 2014, and is the best overall introduction. It doesn't just look at current events; he applies his approach to pretty much all the great civilizations of world history, starting with ancient Egypt. Well worth reading for that alone, it's amazing. Also covers modern day, and while it's a bit out of date now, the broad strokes haven't changed. This book includes a prediction that Russia would invade the rest of Ukraine right about now. If you read just one, make it this one. The next two books are entirely focused on present day. Absent Superpower from 2016 has two parts. The first is probably more information than you want about the shale revolution in the US, but he keeps it interesting. Then he writes about individual countries, with more of an energy focus. This one's obviously most relevant to the tech we're discussing here, which could change everything if it scales up soon enough. Now I'm partway through Disunited Nations, from 2020. This also goes country by country, and of course is the most up-to-date so far. He starts out with several chapters on China, and goes into more detail than the previous book on their situation, which is incredibly grim. Now I'm starting the next chapter, on Japan. His next book comes out in June. I think he mentioned in a video that he focuses more on the outlook for various industries.

_hypx 4y ago

The idea of synfuels, which is what this is, is not new. Many companies are pursuing this idea. Including Porsche: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/porsche-taking-stake-in-e-fuels-maker-highly-innovative-fuels-global.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/porsche-taking-stake-in-e-fu... There are two challenges to tackle here: First is to make it work at all, and second is to do it cheaper than what the competition can muster.

nyokodo 4y ago
> There are two challenges to tackle Both of which are covered in the article.

db65edfc7996 4y ago

One thing that is unclear to me - are there items that need to be replaced/regenerated? The article says the costs are mostly capital. If true, on a long enough timeline, are you not just looking at entirely operational costs (sourcing water + electricity)?

rmcginnis 4y ago
Yes, only inputs are air and electricity. If you have an equipment payback of only a few years, then after that all fuel is close to opex only. Similar to solar itself.
ncmncm 4y ago
The chemical reagents are not consumed in operation, but they could be subject to contamination over time, and need to be replaced periodically.

rmcginnis 4y ago

$3.00 / gallon is our v 1.0 (before taxes)

sien 4y ago
Wow. If you hit that you're sorted in Europe. https://www.tolls.eu/fuel-prices https://www.tolls.eu/fuel-prices European prices seem to average about ~ EU 1.8 / litre or ~7.2 EU / Gallon or $US 7.6 / gallon. For C02 neutral fuel it would just work at that price.
- Auracle 4y ago
  A very large portion of what Europeans pay for gas is tax.
  - PeterisP 4y ago
    Looking at local (EU) gas price structure, ~50% is the actual cost of fuel and the rest is excise tax, VAT, and expenses/profit. So $3/gal bulk cost would fit a $6/gal = 1.6 eur/litre retail price including all taxes, which would be competitive even without any subsidies that a CO2-neutral fuel might justify.
  - sien 4y ago
    Yes. Definitely. In most (all?) developed countries except the US fuel tax easily covers the costs of roads and subsidizes everything else. The EU is determined to reduce C02 emissions rapidly. If they want to do that they could cut their fuel taxes and use C02 neutral fuel and meet their targets much more easily. Not to mention cutting dependence on authoritarian states.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Presumably this stuff won't be taxed the same way. Taxes will need to be restructured so roads are paid for, maybe by vehicle licensing.
    - HyprMusic 4y ago

toast0 4y ago

Burried in the long post (as copied in the thread), it sounds like they are starting to move something to production, which they say will enable enough fuel to do demos and what not. Depending on what exactly that means when it happens, maybe they can start selling $10/gallon gasoline somewhere. If it's a turnkey fuel production device, I'm sure there's a market for hook up electricity in remote location and get a tank of fuel over time.

ncmncm 4y ago
Tractor fuel produced at the foot of a wind turbine in the middle of a farmer's field, that doesn't need to be transported from a refinery, would have immediate value. Fences made of double-sided solar panels mounted a bit more than tractor-width apart, running N-S, coexist nicely with row crops, and cut water loss, improve conversion efficiency (via evaporative cooling), and often increase yield besides (via reduced heat stress). Producing fuel locally is better than selling the power and buying fuel. HH XX HH HH=XX=HH <--tractor HH XX HH crop XX | XX | <-panel/fence v HH | x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x|x x x x|x x x x|x x x x|x
- alex_young 4y ago
  Why not just make electric tractors? The energy efficiency of converting wind -> electricity -> fuel -> mechanical power has to be less efficient than wind -> electricity -> mechanical power right?
  - coderintherye 4y ago
    Solectrac is making electric tractors in production. They are available today (though waiting period between deposit and delivery).
    - ncmncm 4y ago

moistly 4y ago

Prometheus addresses this: > The thing is one cell doesn’t make that much fuel. What it does do is make enough to tell us what to do to iterate to the next cell design, which is exactly what we need to be doing to improve our performance and costs as quickly and inexpensively as possible. If we stopped this process to replicate one of the iterations of the cell to many cells, we could make more fuel, but we wouldn’t learn any more, we’d use up a lot of time and materials, and it wouldn’t prove that we can compete with fossil fuels on cost - the thing that matters.

mmazing 4y ago

They should release it under some sort of fair use model where they receive 10% of the profits of anyone using their technology. Then, there doesn't need to be any marketing and limiting of availability by only having one source of product. Product manufacturers would probably be ecstatic to generate products that have great use and public appeal, where all you need to do is be the first to be able to manufacture it.