I'm somewhat skeptical of attempts to play out the game theory of what the leaker's motivations would have been. While I generally agree that the author has id

I'm somewhat skeptical of attempts to play out the game theory of what the leaker's motivations would have been. While I generally agree that the author has identified the correct incentives, I'm not so convinced that we can sure the leaker would have arrived at the same conclusions. I'd still count this sort of reasoning as evidence, but I'd give it significantly lower weight than the author seems to.