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Relying on price mechanisms alone probably still means we will use almost all fossil fuel that is in proven reserves though, and that means civilization ending

Relying on price mechanisms alone probably still means we will use almost all fossil fuel that is in proven reserves though, and that means civilization ending levels of climate change. We need a way to keep lots of oil in the ground even if it is profitable to get out.

germinalphrase 5y ago
Isn’t that the premise behind the “carbon coin”?
adra 5y ago
Their point is that oil will only continue to have value if it's kept scarce, and that because there are viable and growing affordable options away from petroleum where there wasn't 10-20 years ago, we will have both a tug of war between producers keeping it in the ground to keeps prices high while their net market shrinks consistently until we're really only left with oil utility where the economy of the resource makes sense (if any). The energy sector will have moved on to the most exploitable sources of power in whatever shape that looks like due to innovation.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> price mechanisms alone probably still means we will use almost all fossil fuel that is in proven reserves Unlikely. Exploration and production is capital intensive because there are minimum scales many projects require to be profitable, e.g. pipelines. High prices amid falling volumes can obscure the production destruction inherent to infrastructure first ceasing to be developed and then being actively shut down. Whale oil prices went up amidst depletion and decommissioning [1]. [1] https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.389.9270&rep=rep1&type=pdf https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.38...
danaris 5y ago
Not just (potentially) civilization-ending levels of climate change—but the near-certainty that, if civilization does end, losing us our current industry and expertise, it will be massively harder to get back to the point we are today, because oil is the conveniently concentrated and portable energy bootstrap that got us this far.

germinalphrase 5y ago

Isn’t that the premise behind the “carbon coin”?

adra 5y ago

Their point is that oil will only continue to have value if it's kept scarce, and that because there are viable and growing affordable options away from petroleum where there wasn't 10-20 years ago, we will have both a tug of war between producers keeping it in the ground to keeps prices high while their net market shrinks consistently until we're really only left with oil utility where the economy of the resource makes sense (if any). The energy sector will have moved on to the most exploitable sources of power in whatever shape that looks like due to innovation.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> price mechanisms alone probably still means we will use almost all fossil fuel that is in proven reserves Unlikely. Exploration and production is capital intensive because there are minimum scales many projects require to be profitable, e.g. pipelines. High prices amid falling volumes can obscure the production destruction inherent to infrastructure first ceasing to be developed and then being actively shut down. Whale oil prices went up amidst depletion and decommissioning [1]. [1] https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.389.9270&rep=rep1&type=pdf https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.38...

danaris 5y ago

Not just (potentially) civilization-ending levels of climate change—but the near-certainty that, if civilization does end, losing us our current industry and expertise, it will be massively harder to get back to the point we are today, because oil is the conveniently concentrated and portable energy bootstrap that got us this far.