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Big oil expects 2019 to be peak oil year because they know that all easy fracking spots are spent. The easy fracking is gone and can only survive through heavy
by causi 5y ago
Big oil expects 2019 to be peak oil year because they know that all easy fracking spots are spent. The easy fracking is gone and can only survive through heavy subsidies.
This is an infantile understanding of shale oil. From needing ever-shorter bores to the move to non-toxic frack fluid, fracking technology is improving at a breakneck pace. Global shale reserves are over three times the size of traditional oil reserves. This has and will radically transform global energy economics. For example, the full-cycle breakeven oil production cost for the United States just dropped below the OPEC average.
- caeril 5y agoMaybe. This is largely a "we don't know" situation. Everything you say is correct, but it's also correct that the "Sweet Spot" effect is real, that well spacing parasitism hasn't been solved, and that the well decline rates haven't really changed with advancing technology. We really don't know anything about reserve recoverability ten years from today. I do think it's certain the author is wrong that we won't beat 2019 production. It's inevitable that we do, but I'm not sure for how long. Guess we'll find out.
- NoGravitas 5y agoShale oil reserves are huge, but also very expensive to exploit. At best, they can never compete with renewables, but most likely they can't even be profitable without subsidies (and worst case, they won't even be energy-positive).
- 2snakes 5y agoWould you please share sources? I need to discuss with a doomer.