5 ms·

These sort of articles are so boring. Give me a date, or a year. Otherwise Doomers will continue to be vague and when something does happen, maybe, they’ll all

These sort of articles are so boring. Give me a date, or a year. Otherwise Doomers will continue to be vague and when something does happen, maybe, they’ll all come out of the woodwork saying I told you so. Until then I’ll enjoy the unprecedented prosperity we’re enjoying here on earth. It’s the same with stock market doomers, housing doomers, etc etc. no one ever gives a specific date. People just make unfalsifiable claims.

FeepingCreature 5y ago
Wasn't on your list, but personally: Singularity 50/50 by 2025. Past 2028 you get to say "I told you so."
- germinalphrase 5y ago
  Three years? That’s a stunningly optimistic (pessimistic?) timeline…
  - FeepingCreature 5y ago
    What can I say, PaLM is scary.
    - NoGravitas 5y ago
      The hand-picked examples are pretty scary, but I'm also reasonably sure that AGI is not going to come (directly) from LLMs no matter how big they get. Reasoning: https://medium.com/@emilymenonbender/on-nyt-magazine-on-ai-resist-the-urge-to-be-impressed-3d92fd9a0edd https://medium.com/@emilymenonbender/on-nyt-magazine-on-ai-r...
      - FeepingCreature 5y ago
        Seems too focused on the NYT article? I don't think this because the NYT said so, I think this because PaLM's chains-of-thought approach seems to match how my own brain works. I think LMs have huge intelligence overhang atm that is hidden by the way they are forced to respond. If we figure out how to train LMs with propagation through hidden chains of thought, we'll see a huge jump in capability, and also this is the obvious next step that the industry will aim for.
  - zmgsabst 5y ago
    I’m betting 2025-2030 as well. We have quantum AI math developed and photonic accelerators are currently in development. The moment those work reliably, machine learning will hit an exponential curve — particularly since those photonic circuits are already partially designed by AI. The feedback loop of quantum-accelerated AI refining its own hardware is one breakthrough away.
    - whimsicalism 5y ago
      Stop reading so much popsci, it is bad for thought.
      - zmgsabst 5y ago
        I’m sorry that you’re ignorant. Microsoft QuArC has published a number of papers on QAI, and I both work on photonics and discuss with other companies who do the accelerators being developed. Accelerating AI with photonics is an active area of development. I think you’re projecting that your knowledge of this is only based on pop-sci.
        whimsicalism 5y ago
        There are a ton of unsolved problems in both ML and quantum computing with photonics. We are so far away from being able to do this with photonic quantum computers that I am really skeptical that you actively work in this field. FWIW, I know quite a lot of people involved in AMO physics (which involves related techniques) and work in ML myself. 2025-2030 is way too soon for these things to come to fruition.
        zmgsabst 5y ago
        I guess you know less talented people then. We’re not more than a single breakthrough from being able to make photonic accelerators — and there’s already worked out algorithms to accelerate ML once those circuits are available. I’m confident in 2025-2030.
time_to_smile 5y ago
It's happening right this second. Right now the American West is suffering from incredible drought, right now there are water problems there. Right now heat waves in India are causing crop failures meaning then are considering to stop the export of wheat at the same time that a war for resources in Ukraine is cause them to reduce wheat exports. I've been a "doomer" so to speak since 2016. I'm shocked at how many things I was concerned about have come to pass. If you were to describe the world of today to someone from 1996 they would be horrified and think you were full of nonsense. But denial is a hell of a drug, so I'm guess you and many other will still not see it no matter what happens. There was a documentary on the sinking island of Tangiers. The mayor of the town (and many residents) remained rabid climate change deniers even as they witnessed their own home be consumed by the sea. Watching that made me realize that nothing will for people to realize what's happening when that realization comes at such a high mental cost.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  > If you were to describe the world of today to someone from 1996 they would be horrified and think you were full of nonsense. You think an average person in 1996 would be horrified of the world today?
  - NoGravitas 5y ago
    I know the 1996 version of me would be horrified of the world today. I also know I'm not very representative, so take that as you will.
rxhernandez 5y ago
I mean, your parent's doctor doesn't tell you a specific date your parent is going to die from cancer. Why would anyone else be able to predict dates that depend on more complex factors?
- endisneigh 5y ago
  Doctors do give pretty tight estimates on expected life expectancy given the stage of the cancer, though.
  - HelloMcFly 5y ago
    That depends heavily on the type of cancer.
giraffe_lady 5y ago
> Until then I’ll enjoy the unprecedented prosperity we’re enjoying here on earth. Who is the "we" who gets to enjoy this? Us here on this site for the most part certainly but who else, who is not included? How's that heat wave in india going btw. Unprecedented prosperity indeed.
- zmgsabst 5y ago
  Do you think India has historically been better off than it is now? Do you believe more than 10% of countries (20 in about 200) are worse off in 2020 than 1920? To me, this does seem like unprecedented prosperity — on a global scale.

FeepingCreature 5y ago

Wasn't on your list, but personally: Singularity 50/50 by 2025. Past 2028 you get to say "I told you so."

germinalphrase 5y ago
Three years? That’s a stunningly optimistic (pessimistic?) timeline…
- FeepingCreature 5y ago
  What can I say, PaLM is scary.
  - NoGravitas 5y ago
    The hand-picked examples are pretty scary, but I'm also reasonably sure that AGI is not going to come (directly) from LLMs no matter how big they get. Reasoning: https://medium.com/@emilymenonbender/on-nyt-magazine-on-ai-resist-the-urge-to-be-impressed-3d92fd9a0edd https://medium.com/@emilymenonbender/on-nyt-magazine-on-ai-r...
    - FeepingCreature 5y ago
      Seems too focused on the NYT article? I don't think this because the NYT said so, I think this because PaLM's chains-of-thought approach seems to match how my own brain works. I think LMs have huge intelligence overhang atm that is hidden by the way they are forced to respond. If we figure out how to train LMs with propagation through hidden chains of thought, we'll see a huge jump in capability, and also this is the obvious next step that the industry will aim for.
- zmgsabst 5y ago
  I’m betting 2025-2030 as well. We have quantum AI math developed and photonic accelerators are currently in development. The moment those work reliably, machine learning will hit an exponential curve — particularly since those photonic circuits are already partially designed by AI. The feedback loop of quantum-accelerated AI refining its own hardware is one breakthrough away.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    Stop reading so much popsci, it is bad for thought.
    - zmgsabst 5y ago
      I’m sorry that you’re ignorant. Microsoft QuArC has published a number of papers on QAI, and I both work on photonics and discuss with other companies who do the accelerators being developed. Accelerating AI with photonics is an active area of development. I think you’re projecting that your knowledge of this is only based on pop-sci.
      - whimsicalism 5y ago
        There are a ton of unsolved problems in both ML and quantum computing with photonics. We are so far away from being able to do this with photonic quantum computers that I am really skeptical that you actively work in this field. FWIW, I know quite a lot of people involved in AMO physics (which involves related techniques) and work in ML myself. 2025-2030 is way too soon for these things to come to fruition.
        zmgsabst 5y ago
        I guess you know less talented people then. We’re not more than a single breakthrough from being able to make photonic accelerators — and there’s already worked out algorithms to accelerate ML once those circuits are available. I’m confident in 2025-2030.

time_to_smile 5y ago

It's happening right this second. Right now the American West is suffering from incredible drought, right now there are water problems there. Right now heat waves in India are causing crop failures meaning then are considering to stop the export of wheat at the same time that a war for resources in Ukraine is cause them to reduce wheat exports. I've been a "doomer" so to speak since 2016. I'm shocked at how many things I was concerned about have come to pass. If you were to describe the world of today to someone from 1996 they would be horrified and think you were full of nonsense. But denial is a hell of a drug, so I'm guess you and many other will still not see it no matter what happens. There was a documentary on the sinking island of Tangiers. The mayor of the town (and many residents) remained rabid climate change deniers even as they witnessed their own home be consumed by the sea. Watching that made me realize that nothing will for people to realize what's happening when that realization comes at such a high mental cost.

endisneigh 5y ago
> If you were to describe the world of today to someone from 1996 they would be horrified and think you were full of nonsense. You think an average person in 1996 would be horrified of the world today?
- NoGravitas 5y ago
  I know the 1996 version of me would be horrified of the world today. I also know I'm not very representative, so take that as you will.

rxhernandez 5y ago

I mean, your parent's doctor doesn't tell you a specific date your parent is going to die from cancer. Why would anyone else be able to predict dates that depend on more complex factors?

endisneigh 5y ago
Doctors do give pretty tight estimates on expected life expectancy given the stage of the cancer, though.
- HelloMcFly 5y ago
  That depends heavily on the type of cancer.

giraffe_lady 5y ago

> Until then I’ll enjoy the unprecedented prosperity we’re enjoying here on earth. Who is the "we" who gets to enjoy this? Us here on this site for the most part certainly but who else, who is not included? How's that heat wave in india going btw. Unprecedented prosperity indeed.

zmgsabst 5y ago
Do you think India has historically been better off than it is now? Do you believe more than 10% of countries (20 in about 200) are worse off in 2020 than 1920? To me, this does seem like unprecedented prosperity — on a global scale.