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> Russia has no real threat from NATO - there is 0% chance of NATO aggression towards Russia, and they know it. I actually think that this is wrong. And that i

by fosk 4y ago

> Russia has no real threat from NATO - there is 0% chance of NATO aggression towards Russia, and they know it. I actually think that this is wrong. And that is the key to understand Russia’s behavior. Russia seems to have (legitimate I would say, given the past) fears that it will be attacked eventually like it happened in the past and needs to be - as a result of that - heavily defended.

trasz 4y ago
I actually agree about the legitimate fears, but this doesn't justify invading anyone. And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose. It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere.
- fosk 4y ago
  Just want to clarify that I am personally against invading any country. But Russia did indeed invade this country, so I am brainstorming as to what their equation may be. Russia is after all a rational actor on the world stage, and they must have thought the benefits are stronger than the cons.
  - jollybean 4y ago
    The problem with your line of thinking is that you are framing their 'rationality' as though they are a Western country. It is 'rational' in Russian to invade a former colony, because they should be dominated by Russia. 75% of the elite are good with that, 50% of the population and the rest will be mostly indifferent in the end. Russia obviously does not want NATO expansion but they are not afraid of it, and NATO 'on their borders' is not an existential concern. Much like Putin set the 'red lines' for intervention and is destroying a nation saying 'others cannot be involved but we can' - his propaganda has you in the same 'mental bubble' - thinking about 'NATO' while he does the unthinkable. Russia also has no interest in telling the truth - they lie, lie, lie. Their diplomacy is entire a function of leverage. Your taking the intellectual posture of an abused person, listening to the excuses of 'why he had to abuse you' etc.. Again - if you want to understand, just read Putin's own words [1]. He does not view Ukraine as a 'place'. He views Ukraine as basically part of 'greater russia' and that 'Ukraine' is not real. Also, read McFaul's thesis about NATO and Russia. [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 [2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...
    - trasz 4y ago
      To me reading this guy was immensely useful for understanding Russian way of thought: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 - starting with demographic, https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619.
- freeflight 4y ago
  > And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose. That makes no sense at all [0], it wasn't Russian politicians that went to Euromaidan to rile the people there up how more negotiations would be "Not enough" [1], that were pretty much Western, and particularly US politicians and "their people" in Ukraine, like Arseniy Yatsenyuk [2]. Who Victoria Nuland called "our man in Ukraine" when discussing how to grandfather in his new Ukrainian government at the UN [3] Even Germany threw in their bid for new PM of Ukraine, with a German national [4], thus Klitschko didn't even qualify for that position without an Ukrainian citizenship. I guess they could have done it like with Natalie Jaresko, an American banker who ended up becoming the new Ukrainian minister of finance, got her Ukrainian citizenship the same day she was sworn in as minister [5]. This whole situation also lead to the Russian military having massive supply issues, as East Ukraine used to be rather integral manufacturing hub for Russian military arms [6]. Why would Russia want to "manufacture" losing all of that? > It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere. The US still is doing these things, US troops still illegally occupy territories in places like Cuba and Syria. US drones and Special forces still kill people in at least half a dozen countries [7], with the help of countries that allegedly condone wars of aggression [8], Gitmo is still open and nobody knows how many more like it secretly exist. In that context I find it fascinating how US war crimes are always declared like this thing from a far flung past that simply doesn't matter anymore, to then turn around and demand how the whole world should punish Russia for war crimes like its the next Nazi Germany. Which I totally could get behind, if this was the universal reaction to such acts of aggression, but it absolutely is not. That's only the reaction when established "rogue nations" aka the alleged "bad guys" engage in such aggression, thus it can be exploited to support US foreign policy narratives. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahnybok-in-ukraine-2013-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahn... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20140302111543/http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners https://web.archive.org/web/20140302111543/http://openukrain... [3] https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k [4] https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_66915060/ukraine-merkel-moechte-klitschko-den-ruecken-staerken.html https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_66915060/ukra... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko#Citizenship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko#Citizenship [6] https://web.archive.org/web/20150329000809/http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-up-in-arms-russias-dependency-on-ukrainian-military-industries/ https://web.archive.org/web/20150329000809/http://www.soufan... [7] https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/obama-killed-a-16-year-old-american-in-yemen-trump-just-killed-his-8-year-old-sister/ https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/obama-killed-a-16-year-o... [8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/germany-could-have-delivered-justice-for-civilian-drone-strike-victims-it-failed/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/germany-could-have-deli...

by fosk 4y ago

trasz 4y ago

I actually agree about the legitimate fears, but this doesn't justify invading anyone. And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose. It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere.

fosk 4y ago
Just want to clarify that I am personally against invading any country. But Russia did indeed invade this country, so I am brainstorming as to what their equation may be. Russia is after all a rational actor on the world stage, and they must have thought the benefits are stronger than the cons.
- jollybean 4y ago
  The problem with your line of thinking is that you are framing their 'rationality' as though they are a Western country. It is 'rational' in Russian to invade a former colony, because they should be dominated by Russia. 75% of the elite are good with that, 50% of the population and the rest will be mostly indifferent in the end. Russia obviously does not want NATO expansion but they are not afraid of it, and NATO 'on their borders' is not an existential concern. Much like Putin set the 'red lines' for intervention and is destroying a nation saying 'others cannot be involved but we can' - his propaganda has you in the same 'mental bubble' - thinking about 'NATO' while he does the unthinkable. Russia also has no interest in telling the truth - they lie, lie, lie. Their diplomacy is entire a function of leverage. Your taking the intellectual posture of an abused person, listening to the excuses of 'why he had to abuse you' etc.. Again - if you want to understand, just read Putin's own words [1]. He does not view Ukraine as a 'place'. He views Ukraine as basically part of 'greater russia' and that 'Ukraine' is not real. Also, read McFaul's thesis about NATO and Russia. [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 [2] https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/ https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears...
  - trasz 4y ago
    To me reading this guy was immensely useful for understanding Russian way of thought: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711 - starting with demographic, https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619.
freeflight 4y ago
> And the situation in Ukraine was manufactured by Russia on purpose. That makes no sense at all [0], it wasn't Russian politicians that went to Euromaidan to rile the people there up how more negotiations would be "Not enough" [1], that were pretty much Western, and particularly US politicians and "their people" in Ukraine, like Arseniy Yatsenyuk [2]. Who Victoria Nuland called "our man in Ukraine" when discussing how to grandfather in his new Ukrainian government at the UN [3] Even Germany threw in their bid for new PM of Ukraine, with a German national [4], thus Klitschko didn't even qualify for that position without an Ukrainian citizenship. I guess they could have done it like with Natalie Jaresko, an American banker who ended up becoming the new Ukrainian minister of finance, got her Ukrainian citizenship the same day she was sworn in as minister [5]. This whole situation also lead to the Russian military having massive supply issues, as East Ukraine used to be rather integral manufacturing hub for Russian military arms [6]. Why would Russia want to "manufacture" losing all of that? > It's true that USA has done some terrible things in the past. And it's too bad the perpetrators never got punished. But it doesn't mean we should tolerate this behaviour elsewhere. The US still is doing these things, US troops still illegally occupy territories in places like Cuba and Syria. US drones and Special forces still kill people in at least half a dozen countries [7], with the help of countries that allegedly condone wars of aggression [8], Gitmo is still open and nobody knows how many more like it secretly exist. In that context I find it fascinating how US war crimes are always declared like this thing from a far flung past that simply doesn't matter anymore, to then turn around and demand how the whole world should punish Russia for war crimes like its the next Nazi Germany. Which I totally could get behind, if this was the universal reaction to such acts of aggression, but it absolutely is not. That's only the reaction when established "rogue nations" aka the alleged "bad guys" engage in such aggression, thus it can be exploited to support US foreign policy narratives. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahnybok-in-ukraine-2013-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahn... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20140302111543/http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners https://web.archive.org/web/20140302111543/http://openukrain... [3] https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k [4] https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_66915060/ukraine-merkel-moechte-klitschko-den-ruecken-staerken.html https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_66915060/ukra... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko#Citizenship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Jaresko#Citizenship [6] https://web.archive.org/web/20150329000809/http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-up-in-arms-russias-dependency-on-ukrainian-military-industries/ https://web.archive.org/web/20150329000809/http://www.soufan... [7] https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/obama-killed-a-16-year-old-american-in-yemen-trump-just-killed-his-8-year-old-sister/ https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/obama-killed-a-16-year-o... [8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/germany-could-have-delivered-justice-for-civilian-drone-strike-victims-it-failed/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/germany-could-have-deli...