4 ms·

The pendulum always swings back the other way. Perhaps after a downturn, things will revert to the mean.

xpe 4y ago
To what degree is this valid logic? Under what contexts does “reversion to the mean” apply? Over what time frame? The “mean” implies one dimension. What quantity are you referring to?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- xpe 4y ago
  From Wolfram Math World > Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. It is a stretch (and invalid, generally) to extrapolate this well-defined phenomenon to a complex system. There are many complex systems that maintain or increase their complexity.
  - baremetal 4y ago
    > There are many complex systems that maintain or increase their complexity. Increased complexity is only achieved with additional energy input. im suggesting that if energy (read: money) going into the system decreases rather than increases, there will be a reduction in complexity.
    - xpe 4y ago
      The software industry has significant energy input.
    - xpe 4y ago
      Consider a counterexample: an open source project that loses favor / funding / contributors. Does it become less complex? Probably not.
      - baremetal 4y ago
        when it comes to software, it is easier to engineer a complex solution over a simple one. so in that sense, i would agree with you.
- xpe 4y ago
  https://www.econlib.org/is-there-a-swing-of-the-pendulum/ https://www.econlib.org/is-there-a-swing-of-the-pendulum/ > Is There a Swing of the Pendulum? > By Pierre Lemieux > People are often tempted to see social (including economic and political) phenomena in terms of a “swing of the pendulum.” In this perspective, problems such as wokism (just to give an example) will be corrected when the pendulum swings back. I suggest that this approach is easily misleading and seldom useful.
- francisofascii 4y ago
  > What quantity are you referring to How about global IT spending (measured in trillions). Or perhaps spending in "new technologies." If there is a downturn, there would probably be a reduction in IT spending, and so many of these overly complex application solutions could get cut, delayed, complexity downgraded, etc.

xpe 4y ago

To what degree is this valid logic? Under what contexts does “reversion to the mean” apply? Over what time frame? The “mean” implies one dimension. What quantity are you referring to?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
xpe 4y ago
From Wolfram Math World > Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. It is a stretch (and invalid, generally) to extrapolate this well-defined phenomenon to a complex system. There are many complex systems that maintain or increase their complexity.
- baremetal 4y ago
  > There are many complex systems that maintain or increase their complexity. Increased complexity is only achieved with additional energy input. im suggesting that if energy (read: money) going into the system decreases rather than increases, there will be a reduction in complexity.
  - xpe 4y ago
    The software industry has significant energy input.
  - xpe 4y ago
    Consider a counterexample: an open source project that loses favor / funding / contributors. Does it become less complex? Probably not.
    - baremetal 4y ago
      when it comes to software, it is easier to engineer a complex solution over a simple one. so in that sense, i would agree with you.
xpe 4y ago
https://www.econlib.org/is-there-a-swing-of-the-pendulum/ https://www.econlib.org/is-there-a-swing-of-the-pendulum/ > Is There a Swing of the Pendulum? > By Pierre Lemieux > People are often tempted to see social (including economic and political) phenomena in terms of a “swing of the pendulum.” In this perspective, problems such as wokism (just to give an example) will be corrected when the pendulum swings back. I suggest that this approach is easily misleading and seldom useful.
francisofascii 4y ago
> What quantity are you referring to How about global IT spending (measured in trillions). Or perhaps spending in "new technologies." If there is a downturn, there would probably be a reduction in IT spending, and so many of these overly complex application solutions could get cut, delayed, complexity downgraded, etc.