4 ms·

Space flight undeniably was a mythology. I would say however that if space flight was the mythology of this age, this age is rapidly coming to an end. There was

by hnbad 5y ago

Space flight undeniably was a mythology. I would say however that if space flight was the mythology of this age, this age is rapidly coming to an end. There was some renewed "mainstream" interest a few years ago around Mars colonization (remember Mars One, which rapidly fell apart after seeing some hype in the early 2010s) and astronomical discoveries and accomplishments (like the first picture of a black hole) still generate some buzz every now and then but it's hardly a mass movement anymore and hasn't been for years. Even pre-pandemic it felt like it was already largely fizzling out. To me it feels like the "new space age" has been ending since at least the mid-2010s. Note how Trump's Space Force was largely met with ridicule, public awareness of SpaceX petered out as it went from experimental to production, and more recently Putin's threat to pull out of the ISS largely didn't have any impact beyond worries about where it might crash if it did. The question is what the next mythology will be (or already is). Since the 2010s we've seen instability in the EU, a rise of the far right in Western nations and Christian conservatism in the US, conspiracy groups like QAnon (or its equivalents, often tied to Covid denialism) entering the mainstream, a global pandemic being mostly allowed to run its course, the catastrophic end (for now) of the American forever war in the Middle East and multiple supply chain disruptions. Where do we imagine ourselves going from here?

loudmax 5y ago
> public awareness of SpaceX petered out as it went from experimental to production SpaceX's Starship rocket is in very active development. If Starship flies and lands, it will fundamentally change humanity's relationship to space. Given the the success of SpaceX's Falcon rockets, there's good reason to believe that they'll be able to pull it off.
- hnbad 5y ago
  For what? The point-to-point travel on Earth is no less vaporware than the Tesla truck. No, not the Cybertruck. The EV truck envisioned to eventually run with FSD. The thing that sounds revolutionary until you do the maths and realize it can transport barely any cargo compared to all existing alternatives because of the weight of the batteries it needs, even if you use the most optimistic pie in the sky promises of storage efficiency Tesla published at the time. Even if you ignore the health issues (e.g. horrible G forces, travelling on a massive tank of explosives) to do this safely requires such a distance between the "spaceports" and population centers that it barely comes out on top of existing aircraft (let alone high speed aircraft like the Concorde, which was ultimately scrapped because the speed advantage wasn't worth the drawbacks). So this leaves either travel to/from a space station or travel to/from a planetary body. The ISS is a research project and already showing its age, so "space station" probably would have to be something else. Humans don't deal well with prolonged stays in zero gravity, so a "space hotel" is probably not going to work out even if you work out the economic problems and ignore the social ones (e.g. staff either having to be cycled out very frequently or being worked to death). Building "space infrastructure" comes with many of the same problems but also requires continuous resupplies, which will still cost an incredible amount of fuel if the cargo is at all heavy (as industrial supplies tend to be). The moon could be a more practical idea given it at least has some semblance of gravity and at least shields you from the cosmic horrors on one side (i.e. from below) but any attempt at permanent residency would still impose massive health problems and require a constant stream of supplies and moon dust simply isn't all that profitable a resource. Mars sounds cool but is simply too far away. Any attempt to make it hospitable would likely take on the order of thousands of years if not more while still requiring a constant stream of supplies (but now at an even greater distance, a much more constrained time window and with radio communication having a very noticeable delay). Plus anyone actually going there would have to not only not go crazy on the journey but also maintain mental health sitting in a featureless desert with no atmosphere and knowing that this is where they will die. Space is exciting, but humans are very much made for living on Earth and any attempt at expansion will require first stabilizing life on Earth for at least the next few thousand years -- which is pretty much the opposite direction we're currently heading in even if you ignore Climate Change. A bigger badder rocket ship won't change that. Don't get me wrong, I very much used to be a Musk stan for a while too and I actually got the Hotwheels model of the Tesla he sent to space sitting right next to me right now, but even at the time I realized that for all my excitement about that stunt, nobody outside my tech bubble actually cared about that. Reusable rockets were cool outside my bubble, for about the thirty seconds it took to watch the recording. The black hole I mentioned was met with amazement, but realistically the reactions were in the same ballpark as those to the usual "super moon" news reports. None of this stuff had a profound impact and neither will a bigger rocket or a new space shuttle.

by hnbad 5y ago

loudmax 5y ago

> public awareness of SpaceX petered out as it went from experimental to production SpaceX's Starship rocket is in very active development. If Starship flies and lands, it will fundamentally change humanity's relationship to space. Given the the success of SpaceX's Falcon rockets, there's good reason to believe that they'll be able to pull it off.

hnbad 5y ago
For what? The point-to-point travel on Earth is no less vaporware than the Tesla truck. No, not the Cybertruck. The EV truck envisioned to eventually run with FSD. The thing that sounds revolutionary until you do the maths and realize it can transport barely any cargo compared to all existing alternatives because of the weight of the batteries it needs, even if you use the most optimistic pie in the sky promises of storage efficiency Tesla published at the time. Even if you ignore the health issues (e.g. horrible G forces, travelling on a massive tank of explosives) to do this safely requires such a distance between the "spaceports" and population centers that it barely comes out on top of existing aircraft (let alone high speed aircraft like the Concorde, which was ultimately scrapped because the speed advantage wasn't worth the drawbacks). So this leaves either travel to/from a space station or travel to/from a planetary body. The ISS is a research project and already showing its age, so "space station" probably would have to be something else. Humans don't deal well with prolonged stays in zero gravity, so a "space hotel" is probably not going to work out even if you work out the economic problems and ignore the social ones (e.g. staff either having to be cycled out very frequently or being worked to death). Building "space infrastructure" comes with many of the same problems but also requires continuous resupplies, which will still cost an incredible amount of fuel if the cargo is at all heavy (as industrial supplies tend to be). The moon could be a more practical idea given it at least has some semblance of gravity and at least shields you from the cosmic horrors on one side (i.e. from below) but any attempt at permanent residency would still impose massive health problems and require a constant stream of supplies and moon dust simply isn't all that profitable a resource. Mars sounds cool but is simply too far away. Any attempt to make it hospitable would likely take on the order of thousands of years if not more while still requiring a constant stream of supplies (but now at an even greater distance, a much more constrained time window and with radio communication having a very noticeable delay). Plus anyone actually going there would have to not only not go crazy on the journey but also maintain mental health sitting in a featureless desert with no atmosphere and knowing that this is where they will die. Space is exciting, but humans are very much made for living on Earth and any attempt at expansion will require first stabilizing life on Earth for at least the next few thousand years -- which is pretty much the opposite direction we're currently heading in even if you ignore Climate Change. A bigger badder rocket ship won't change that. Don't get me wrong, I very much used to be a Musk stan for a while too and I actually got the Hotwheels model of the Tesla he sent to space sitting right next to me right now, but even at the time I realized that for all my excitement about that stunt, nobody outside my tech bubble actually cared about that. Reusable rockets were cool outside my bubble, for about the thirty seconds it took to watch the recording. The black hole I mentioned was met with amazement, but realistically the reactions were in the same ballpark as those to the usual "super moon" news reports. None of this stuff had a profound impact and neither will a bigger rocket or a new space shuttle.