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I agree with the OP that this situation is unprecedented. However, you're correct that this wasn't totally out of the blue. There were concerns about this that

I agree with the OP that this situation is unprecedented. However, you're correct that this wasn't totally out of the blue. There were concerns about this that started emerging last summer, and then escalated again in the fall. This was related to the water crisis in Crimea as well as falling support for Putin in Russia. https://www.ft.com/content/5eda71fc-d678-41cd-ac5a-d7f324e19441 https://www.ft.com/content/5eda71fc-d678-41cd-ac5a-d7f324e19... I also think this has always really been about the eastern Ukrainian region. The stuff about taking western Ukraine has been a strategic ruse and/or secondary aim.

watwut 5y ago
By unprecedented, in which time span it is unprecedented for Russia to become authoritarian or expansive? If anything, there seems to be continuity in Russian behavior. > I also think this has always really been about the eastern Ukrainian region. The stuff about taking western Ukraine has been a strategic ruse and/or secondary aim. I find this super unlikely. If the goal was eastern Ukrainian region, their initial attack makes zero sense. And also, their rhetoric's makes zero sense - they talked about Ukraine not being real country, Ukrainians not beaing real nation. You don't need to attack Kyiv to get eastern region. There is nothing to suggest that this was ruse, but everything to suggest they failed and they are looking for second price.