not evidence, just basic statistical reasoning based on a set of necessary assumptions. I'm going to assume you are a reasonably competent driver. Also, that y

not evidence, just basic statistical reasoning based on a set of necessary assumptions. I'm going to assume you are a reasonably competent driver. Also, that your driving routine is pretty stable. Now these assumptions may not apply to you, but they do apply in general, which is what you need to set insurance risk. Traffic density on your Wed commute to work is pretty stable week over week, with approximately the same percentage of over-tired or over-stressed drivers. Your driving ability has probably not significantly improved over the last 6 months. Thus, your chance of getting into an accident this morning on the way to work is independent of the chance of you having an accident next Wednesday. Likewise, your chance of getting into an accident this morning is independent of the chance of your co-worker who lives on the other side of town but has a similar risk profile to you of the commute (same type of roads, same distances). In general, in aggregate. Y