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> Even with a perfect record since 15.5 years of age. Each driving session is statistically independent. The probability of you getting in a vehicle accident

by chiph 4y ago

> Even with a perfect record since 15.5 years of age. Each driving session is statistically independent. The probability of you getting in a vehicle accident resets every time you get behind the wheel. The actual probability in each session varies based on things like your alertness level, vehicle condition, weather conditions, traffic levels, and so on. Something you can do to reduce your premiums is to shop around every 3-4 years. Most of the big-name insurance companies will start raising your rates around that time-frame because they assume the hassle of changing companies will keep you with them (i.e. human inertia). Another way is to drive "old man" cars. They're usually bigger & heavier, and perform better in accidents than something small & zippy. So they get lower rates because the chance of high medical bills is reduced.

eru 4y ago
> Each driving session is statistically independent. What's your evidence for that?
- mellavora 4y ago
  not evidence, just basic statistical reasoning based on a set of necessary assumptions. I'm going to assume you are a reasonably competent driver. Also, that your driving routine is pretty stable. Now these assumptions may not apply to you, but they do apply in general, which is what you need to set insurance risk. Traffic density on your Wed commute to work is pretty stable week over week, with approximately the same percentage of over-tired or over-stressed drivers. Your driving ability has probably not significantly improved over the last 6 months. Thus, your chance of getting into an accident this morning on the way to work is independent of the chance of you having an accident next Wednesday. Likewise, your chance of getting into an accident this morning is independent of the chance of your co-worker who lives on the other side of town but has a similar risk profile to you of the commute (same type of roads, same distances). In general, in aggregate. Y
  - eru 4y ago
    I'm not sure. Someone who just had five accidents in the last three weeks might drive differently today, don't you think?

by chiph 4y ago

eru 4y ago

> Each driving session is statistically independent. What's your evidence for that?

mellavora 4y ago
not evidence, just basic statistical reasoning based on a set of necessary assumptions. I'm going to assume you are a reasonably competent driver. Also, that your driving routine is pretty stable. Now these assumptions may not apply to you, but they do apply in general, which is what you need to set insurance risk. Traffic density on your Wed commute to work is pretty stable week over week, with approximately the same percentage of over-tired or over-stressed drivers. Your driving ability has probably not significantly improved over the last 6 months. Thus, your chance of getting into an accident this morning on the way to work is independent of the chance of you having an accident next Wednesday. Likewise, your chance of getting into an accident this morning is independent of the chance of your co-worker who lives on the other side of town but has a similar risk profile to you of the commute (same type of roads, same distances). In general, in aggregate. Y
- eru 4y ago
  I'm not sure. Someone who just had five accidents in the last three weeks might drive differently today, don't you think?