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> 1) All data is in distributions, and so no predictions can be made about an individual based on distributions. Good luck with getting people to accept that.
by worik 5y ago
> 1) All data is in distributions, and so no predictions can be made about an individual based on distributions.
Good luck with getting people to accept that. It is obvious to any statistician, but I have had arguments with experienced researches who cannot grasp this simple fact
- _aavaa_ 5y agoMaybe that means something different to me than it does to you, but you definitely can make predictions about individuals. Is that not what a prior? If I hear that someone is 12 years old and I know nothing else about them, then assuming their height is the mode for that age group is as good of a prediction as you can make.
- astrange 5y agoA more important point is that the instant you meet someone, you have far more information about them than knowing their genetics would give you. So it'd be strange to meet a Dutch person and go "hah, by your genetics I predict you're 190cm tall" if you're looking at them and they're short.
- robonerd 5y agoYeah, but sometimes friendly looking dogs aren't so friendly. There are some general signs you can look for in a dog's body language and behavior, but unless you've spent a lot of time with that dog you just don't know for sure.
- _aavaa_ 5y agoYes. But until then all you have with are the statistics.