4 ms·

I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. > Are you better than them? Are you?

coding123 4y ago
> Are you? I think he's saying that no-one person can be better. Stock market crashed on 9-11. So what happened the next time the world had such a huge hit (Covid)? the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip. It didn't exist because everyone that was expecting it caused the same to not happen. So I guess if you think you know what's going to happen next. You're probably 1 of a million others that are guessing the same thing and so what you think will happen doesn't. It also doesn't help that the government's reaction changes to major crisis events too - and those actions you can't predict- let alone what affect they will have. It's basically a super large neural net (the largest). I mean can someone put in something crazy into GPT3 and before they enter it (something not entered previously) GUESS what's going to come out?
- lutorm 4y ago
  Yeah, this is what I was thinking too. If there was a theory by which you could predict the outcome of the market, the mere presence of such a theory would affect the market such that the theory no longer applied. Sort of a Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Economics, but worse. ;-)
- WA 4y ago
  > the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip What? The market (SPX) dipped 35% within a couple weeks in March 2020. Yes, it rose afterwards, because the FED opened the floodgates, but there was a very significant dip first.
danielmarkbruce 4y ago
If Tiger Woods says "most people shouldn't try to be a professional golfer", he is giving clearly good advice.
Mikeb85 4y ago
> I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. Not OP but can answer... It's because if you don't start with a massive amount of capital you won't make enough money to support yourself. Hence why OP recommended to simply invest the time into your own job or start a business. A 40% return on $100k (which is a great return BTW) is barely more than minimum wage... Meanwhile a few % of a billion $ can sustain a firm.
avvt4avaw 4y ago
The glib answer is that my own advice in 2022 wasn't available to me when I started my career in finance in 2010. The less glib answer is that what I said above applies to managing your own money as a part time investor. If you are managing other people's money as well as your own, and doing it full time, with access to huge datasets and sophisticated models, then you are playing a totally different game.

coding123 4y ago

> Are you? I think he's saying that no-one person can be better. Stock market crashed on 9-11. So what happened the next time the world had such a huge hit (Covid)? the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip. It didn't exist because everyone that was expecting it caused the same to not happen. So I guess if you think you know what's going to happen next. You're probably 1 of a million others that are guessing the same thing and so what you think will happen doesn't. It also doesn't help that the government's reaction changes to major crisis events too - and those actions you can't predict- let alone what affect they will have. It's basically a super large neural net (the largest). I mean can someone put in something crazy into GPT3 and before they enter it (something not entered previously) GUESS what's going to come out?

lutorm 4y ago
Yeah, this is what I was thinking too. If there was a theory by which you could predict the outcome of the market, the mere presence of such a theory would affect the market such that the theory no longer applied. Sort of a Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Economics, but worse. ;-)
WA 4y ago
> the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip What? The market (SPX) dipped 35% within a couple weeks in March 2020. Yes, it rose afterwards, because the FED opened the floodgates, but there was a very significant dip first.

danielmarkbruce 4y ago

If Tiger Woods says "most people shouldn't try to be a professional golfer", he is giving clearly good advice.

Mikeb85 4y ago

> I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. Not OP but can answer... It's because if you don't start with a massive amount of capital you won't make enough money to support yourself. Hence why OP recommended to simply invest the time into your own job or start a business. A 40% return on $100k (which is a great return BTW) is barely more than minimum wage... Meanwhile a few % of a billion $ can sustain a firm.

avvt4avaw 4y ago

The glib answer is that my own advice in 2022 wasn't available to me when I started my career in finance in 2010. The less glib answer is that what I said above applies to managing your own money as a part time investor. If you are managing other people's money as well as your own, and doing it full time, with access to huge datasets and sophisticated models, then you are playing a totally different game.