It looks like it changed pretty dramatically since you posted (it's now at a 24% chance of occurring before the end of the year). This site [0] uses actual mone

It looks like it changed pretty dramatically since you posted (it's now at a 24% chance of occurring before the end of the year). This site [0] uses actual money, and more closely lines up with what I expect (although still more pessimistic than I am). [0] https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos