2 ms·

Notably, the DARPA grand challenges funded the competitors before the competition. If you tell me you'll give me $100 million to solve global warming, I'll say

Notably, the DARPA grand challenges funded the competitors before the competition. If you tell me you'll give me $100 million to solve global warming, I'll say "great, I'd love to try and get that money, but I'll need $1 million to get started". If the answer is "no startup funding, you have to show me the thing first before any money is given", then I'm not even going to try. In the DARPA had two tracks for their competition, with competitors in one of the tracks being granted $1 million to fund their entries. Now, you had to qualify to get that funding so a reputation and some prior work was needed, but the consolation prize was you were able to advance your career whether you won or lost. That is why it worked. You can't just dangle a giant carrot at this level and expect people to bite if it's a zero-sum game. Let's say I invest millions and years of my time to get the $100 million prize, and someone gets it right before me. What's my consolation prize? If it's absolutely nothing, then I'm not going to risk my career on that bet, and probably the person who would actually crack that egg won't either. Moreover, they might still try but it will be through tested funding channels.

zozbot234 5y ago
> Let's say I invest millions and years of my time to get the $100 million prize, and someone gets it right before me. What's my consolation prize? If it's absolutely nothing, then I'm not going to risk my career on that bet Isn't that exactly how startups work? A $100 million prize is reaching into baby unicorn territory (a fully grown unicorn is "only" $1B in value), so why wouldn't the prospect of winning the grand prize be enough to attract funding?
- ModernMech 5y ago
  If you squint, but really academic incentive structures are such that this isn't an attractive bet. There's really no scenario where you can shoot for the $100 million without getting interim funding from grant agencies. And if that's what you're doing, you'll need to publish and conduct research in the usual way. Which begs the question, if everyone shooting for the $100 million is doing research as usual, what's the $100 million really incentivizing? The DARPA grand challenges recognized that this incentive structure doesn't work well. What they did instead was they held 3 smaller prizes instead of one large one. This meant that development was incremental over 5 years, which they also funded. What they did in those 5 years was take driverless cars from running off the road into rocks in the middle of the desert in 2003; to converging on an architecture that could reliably navigate an urban environment by 2007, an architecture which is now the basis for all commercial driverless car efforts. If they had offered just a single lump sum for a demonstration of such a car, I think the entire industry wouldn't be where it is today.
- danielmarkbruce 5y ago
  Startups often take venture funding. So, would a VC fund a shot at a $100 mill prize? Probably not. It's not big enough.

zozbot234 5y ago

> Let's say I invest millions and years of my time to get the $100 million prize, and someone gets it right before me. What's my consolation prize? If it's absolutely nothing, then I'm not going to risk my career on that bet Isn't that exactly how startups work? A $100 million prize is reaching into baby unicorn territory (a fully grown unicorn is "only" $1B in value), so why wouldn't the prospect of winning the grand prize be enough to attract funding?

ModernMech 5y ago
If you squint, but really academic incentive structures are such that this isn't an attractive bet. There's really no scenario where you can shoot for the $100 million without getting interim funding from grant agencies. And if that's what you're doing, you'll need to publish and conduct research in the usual way. Which begs the question, if everyone shooting for the $100 million is doing research as usual, what's the $100 million really incentivizing? The DARPA grand challenges recognized that this incentive structure doesn't work well. What they did instead was they held 3 smaller prizes instead of one large one. This meant that development was incremental over 5 years, which they also funded. What they did in those 5 years was take driverless cars from running off the road into rocks in the middle of the desert in 2003; to converging on an architecture that could reliably navigate an urban environment by 2007, an architecture which is now the basis for all commercial driverless car efforts. If they had offered just a single lump sum for a demonstration of such a car, I think the entire industry wouldn't be where it is today.
danielmarkbruce 5y ago
Startups often take venture funding. So, would a VC fund a shot at a $100 mill prize? Probably not. It's not big enough.