11 ms·
> its not like we're getting 2012 US Midwest levels of drought in back-to-back years (now THAT would be a crunch). That's very likely in the current climate ch
by PheonixPharts 4y ago
> its not like we're getting 2012 US Midwest levels of drought in back-to-back years (now THAT would be a crunch).
That's very likely in the current climate change scenario. Look at what's happening in the American South West right now. Lake Mead is currently at unprecedented low levels with no evidence that this will change course any time soon. It's possible within a decade there won't be enough water to run the Hoover dam. That's something no one would have taken as a serious risk 10 years ago.
- kickout 4y agoCorrect, those long tail problems aren't so long when variance is high and time scales are long (50-60 years)
- ch4s3 4y agoLake Mead is so low because the Colorado River Water Compact allocates more water than has historically been in the river, based on tree ring data. There have been a number of years of historically average flow in a row, and keeping the reservoirs full requires roughly a decade of above average flow. * Edit * For clarity the compact divides up 17 million acre/ft per year and the real average historic flow is closer to 13 million acre/ft per year. The compact also double dips in it's accounting for some return flows.
- EricE 4y agoIt' going to be within the next year or two, not a decade.... As I currently sit less than 5 miles from Hoover Dam.