4 ms·

Hasn't drought in the American west been a constant for at least the past 1500 years? Like, that's the origin story of most of the native groups - "everything d

by t-3 5y ago

Hasn't drought in the American west been a constant for at least the past 1500 years? Like, that's the origin story of most of the native groups - "everything died so we traveled through the hellish lands of death until we reached a place with water". Those that lived in the area throughout that time (like my own ancestors) left almost no history for obvious reasons, but it's pretty sure that they lived without most of the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, like fire, clothing, or agriculture.

ahevia 5y ago
Drought has always been part of the American west. The distinction here is the frequency & intensity of # of drought days. Those are increasing due to us pumping GHG into our atmosphere. The ecosystem in the west has adapted to drought, but they never adapted for a sudden increase in drought in only a few decades (not long enough for evolution to create useful adaptations on a large scale to speciate) + a competing species reducing total avail land and taking up water supply.
Maciek416 5y ago
Big droughts have come and gone over the years. Here’s a nice historical data explorer: https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&selectedDateUSDM=20100601 https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&sel...
- __MatrixMan__ 5y ago
  > The SPI is the number of standard deviations that observed cumulative precipitation deviates from the climatological average Is "the climatological average" the same as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatological_normal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatological_normal? if so then it's a pretty misleading metic. You can deviate from "normal" in both directions roughly at the same frequency, all the while dragging normal below a "you can survive this" threshold.
newaccount2021 5y ago
1500 (or even 100) years ago, California didn't have 30 million people + intensive industrial agriculture
shadowofneptune 5y ago
The West was unusually wet when white settlement really got going. That's why the idea of 'rain following the plow' was able to exist for so long without being obviously discredited.
PheonixPharts 5y ago
What's the point you are making? It sounds like your saying that there have been droughts in the past that repeatedly uprooted and changed entire cultures lives and history. Right now we're going to be facing even more severly droughts due to climate change that will very likely impact far more people far more severely. So you're correct: when this happened in the past simply do to natural variation in the region in caused incredible hardship on the residents of the region. Now we're experience this from factors changing the environment on a much larger and more aggressive scale, so it will likely be even more devastating the the past. > hey lived without most of the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, like fire, clothing, or agriculture. While some of the native populations of the region where nomadic groups and likely didn't have agriculture, they all had fire and clothing. In addition there were plenty of agricultural civilizations in the region.
- PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
  > Now we're experience this from factors changing the environment on a much larger and more aggressive scale, so it will likely be even more devastating the the past. The peoples impacted by the decades long droughts in the past did not have access to groundwater and in general terms did not have the capacity to build significant dams. This changes the impact story quite significantly. However, they also didn't practice agriculture on the scale or with the irrigation practices that have become common in the US southwest now, and since it is this that uses 75% of all the water, the more likely change if intense drought continues is the abandonement of the "reclamation" dreams hatched in the 1920s and 1930s after 20-30 of the wettest years in the history of the United States as a nation.
- ErikVandeWater 5y ago
  > Right now we're going to be facing even more severly droughts due to climate change that will very likely impact far more people far more severely. There isn't evidence that global warming is causing more droughts in California. Just because the globe overall is warmer and experiences more droughts, doesn't mean every part of it is warmer and experiences more droughts. Global warming could actually be causing the opposite, and there would be even more severe droughts if less CO2 had been emitted by humans.
PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
> Those that lived in the area throughout that time (like my own ancestors) left almost no history for obvious reasons, Humans have lived in the basin where I live for at least 4000 years, and many parts of it are filled with thousands of bits of their pottery as evidence of their presence. I suspect that the Tewa/Pueblo people in general would be a little troubled by the idea that they "left almost no history" behind. I'm not sure what you think the "obvious reasons" would be for this, were it to be true? > but it's pretty sure that they lived without most of the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, like fire, clothing, or agriculture. Your assumption is incorrect. The US southwest, like other parts of north America, has been home to human civilizations for thousands of years. The meant civilizations with technologies, art, trade, travel and certainly "fire, clothing and agriculture". Chaco Canyon in NW New Mexico was at one time a basically urban center that functioned as the area hub of a trading route that stretched from south of what is now Mexico City up into Utah, and was likely home to thousands of people living in permanent dwellings. What is true is that the populations were generally small compared to modern American cities in the region, and would have tended to concentrate in areas with year-round surface water flow. Because of the lack of access to groundwater (as we have today, perhaps at a our long term peril), when the decades-long droughts hit (e.g. in the late 1400s) many of these populations had no choice but to move.
- t-3 5y ago
  Artifacts are not history, they are items. The names, languages, and cultures of many native groups are completely unknown due to genocide and forced integration. I said that they lacked the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, not that they didn't exist or have civilization, which I know they did - but they died out due to drought. Much of the time, they lacked resources for widespread access to fire, clothing materials, or sedentary farming, because there was so little water and so little arable land, and they learned to live without those things. https://www.desertusa.com/ind1/ind_new/ind16.html https://www.desertusa.com/ind1/ind_new/ind16.html
  - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
    > The names, languages, and cultures of many native groups are completely unknown due to genocide and forced integration. Now that I understand what you're referring to, sure, absolutely. A apologize for not getting your point there immediately, since it now seems so obvious. The Chihuahan and Sonoran deserts are certainly unforgiving landscapes for human settlement, even more so without access to groundwater. But they don't represent the full range of landscapes and ecosystems of the "desert southwest" - the northern half of both what is now AZ and NM is still relatively dry compared to areas east of the 100th meridian, but has lots more opportunities for water-requiring civilization-al stuff (especially along valleys like the Rio Grande). Places like Bandelier and Gila show evidence of sedentary farming that lasted for (at least) hundreds of years. Yes, this is a different ecosystem and climate from the desert areas described in the article you linked to, but just as much a part of the human history of this part of the world.

by t-3 5y ago

ahevia 5y ago

Drought has always been part of the American west. The distinction here is the frequency & intensity of # of drought days. Those are increasing due to us pumping GHG into our atmosphere. The ecosystem in the west has adapted to drought, but they never adapted for a sudden increase in drought in only a few decades (not long enough for evolution to create useful adaptations on a large scale to speciate) + a competing species reducing total avail land and taking up water supply.

Maciek416 5y ago

Big droughts have come and gone over the years. Here’s a nice historical data explorer: https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&selectedDateUSDM=20100601 https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&sel...

__MatrixMan__ 5y ago
> The SPI is the number of standard deviations that observed cumulative precipitation deviates from the climatological average Is "the climatological average" the same as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatological_normal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatological_normal? if so then it's a pretty misleading metic. You can deviate from "normal" in both directions roughly at the same frequency, all the while dragging normal below a "you can survive this" threshold.

newaccount2021 5y ago

1500 (or even 100) years ago, California didn't have 30 million people + intensive industrial agriculture

shadowofneptune 5y ago

The West was unusually wet when white settlement really got going. That's why the idea of 'rain following the plow' was able to exist for so long without being obviously discredited.

PheonixPharts 5y ago

What's the point you are making? It sounds like your saying that there have been droughts in the past that repeatedly uprooted and changed entire cultures lives and history. Right now we're going to be facing even more severly droughts due to climate change that will very likely impact far more people far more severely. So you're correct: when this happened in the past simply do to natural variation in the region in caused incredible hardship on the residents of the region. Now we're experience this from factors changing the environment on a much larger and more aggressive scale, so it will likely be even more devastating the the past. > hey lived without most of the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, like fire, clothing, or agriculture. While some of the native populations of the region where nomadic groups and likely didn't have agriculture, they all had fire and clothing. In addition there were plenty of agricultural civilizations in the region.

PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
> Now we're experience this from factors changing the environment on a much larger and more aggressive scale, so it will likely be even more devastating the the past. The peoples impacted by the decades long droughts in the past did not have access to groundwater and in general terms did not have the capacity to build significant dams. This changes the impact story quite significantly. However, they also didn't practice agriculture on the scale or with the irrigation practices that have become common in the US southwest now, and since it is this that uses 75% of all the water, the more likely change if intense drought continues is the abandonement of the "reclamation" dreams hatched in the 1920s and 1930s after 20-30 of the wettest years in the history of the United States as a nation.
ErikVandeWater 5y ago
> Right now we're going to be facing even more severly droughts due to climate change that will very likely impact far more people far more severely. There isn't evidence that global warming is causing more droughts in California. Just because the globe overall is warmer and experiences more droughts, doesn't mean every part of it is warmer and experiences more droughts. Global warming could actually be causing the opposite, and there would be even more severe droughts if less CO2 had been emitted by humans.

PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago

> Those that lived in the area throughout that time (like my own ancestors) left almost no history for obvious reasons, Humans have lived in the basin where I live for at least 4000 years, and many parts of it are filled with thousands of bits of their pottery as evidence of their presence. I suspect that the Tewa/Pueblo people in general would be a little troubled by the idea that they "left almost no history" behind. I'm not sure what you think the "obvious reasons" would be for this, were it to be true? > but it's pretty sure that they lived without most of the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, like fire, clothing, or agriculture. Your assumption is incorrect. The US southwest, like other parts of north America, has been home to human civilizations for thousands of years. The meant civilizations with technologies, art, trade, travel and certainly "fire, clothing and agriculture". Chaco Canyon in NW New Mexico was at one time a basically urban center that functioned as the area hub of a trading route that stretched from south of what is now Mexico City up into Utah, and was likely home to thousands of people living in permanent dwellings. What is true is that the populations were generally small compared to modern American cities in the region, and would have tended to concentrate in areas with year-round surface water flow. Because of the lack of access to groundwater (as we have today, perhaps at a our long term peril), when the decades-long droughts hit (e.g. in the late 1400s) many of these populations had no choice but to move.

t-3 5y ago
Artifacts are not history, they are items. The names, languages, and cultures of many native groups are completely unknown due to genocide and forced integration. I said that they lacked the trappings of what present-day humans think of as civilization, not that they didn't exist or have civilization, which I know they did - but they died out due to drought. Much of the time, they lacked resources for widespread access to fire, clothing materials, or sedentary farming, because there was so little water and so little arable land, and they learned to live without those things. https://www.desertusa.com/ind1/ind_new/ind16.html https://www.desertusa.com/ind1/ind_new/ind16.html
- PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
  > The names, languages, and cultures of many native groups are completely unknown due to genocide and forced integration. Now that I understand what you're referring to, sure, absolutely. A apologize for not getting your point there immediately, since it now seems so obvious. The Chihuahan and Sonoran deserts are certainly unforgiving landscapes for human settlement, even more so without access to groundwater. But they don't represent the full range of landscapes and ecosystems of the "desert southwest" - the northern half of both what is now AZ and NM is still relatively dry compared to areas east of the 100th meridian, but has lots more opportunities for water-requiring civilization-al stuff (especially along valleys like the Rio Grande). Places like Bandelier and Gila show evidence of sedentary farming that lasted for (at least) hundreds of years. Yes, this is a different ecosystem and climate from the desert areas described in the article you linked to, but just as much a part of the human history of this part of the world.