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I find it really hard to believe Ukraine can loose this war though.

by konart 4y ago

cargotoml 4y ago
throwaway4good 4y ago
That is another discussion; this is looking more like a war with Russia where the outcome the west is pursuing is the end of Russia as it is known today. Probably not going to be over that quickly. Anyway. An NDA is silly and unnecessary when you have far more powerful laws governing state secrets, treason etc. than anything under civil law.
- simonh 4y ago
  I agree with the other comments that this NDA serves a very useful purpose, by detailing all the non obvious forms of information that could be a risk, impressing on people the seriousness of keeping that information confidential, and ensuring they have no excuse to claim they were not fully informed. It also provides a route to prosecute someone who might be caught sharing information they shouldn’t maliciously, but where treason etc could not be proved.
  - hnaccount_rng 4y ago
    I think you overestimate the amount of due process that will be applied in this kind of situation...
    - simonh 4y ago
      Ukraine is a functioning democratic state with a government and an operating judicial system.
- jollybean 4y ago
  Absolutely the opposite, it's even more necessary as a signal so that people recognize the gravity of the situation and are held accountable otherwise. It'd be probably a criminal matter not a civil one. It also gives them legal cover if they need to charge someone with something. AKA just today they announced a 'mole' high up in the civil service.
drran 4y ago
We lost the previous war with RF, then paid a huge price for that in 1932-1934. 7 million adults (this number is accepted by RF in 2008) and 23 million children (this number is not accepted by RF) were murdered by hunger during «Holodomor». We will do everything possible to avoid repeating of the genocide, but RF is a strong opponent with a lot of resources, so we need to be smarter, see better, be better equipped, and be faster. Otherwise, they will just push us inch by inch to Western border.
- helge9210 4y ago
  > We lost the previous war with RF, then paid a huge price for that in 1932-1934 My grandfather survived this and was the one who told me about the famine. Since then I have panic attack from time to time from the idea I won't have anything to give my children when they ask for something to eat. It's even worse now, because that's what is happening on occupied territories.
  - peterburkimsher 4y ago
    How can I give you some food? Or to people in occupied territories, whoever needs it. Life has ups and downs. Thank God I'm doing OK these days, so the only appropriate response to that prosperity is to share freely. Then if/when the tides turn, someone will be able to show the same kindness. So yes, I would like to help if you can specifically say how to do so.
    - helge9210 4y ago
      Thank you for your support! Expecting current situation I and my family left Ukraine in 2012, so we currently help refugees arriving to Germany.
- konart 4y ago
  I mean... I am Russian-Ukrainian. I'm more or less aware. I doubt there is a way for Russia to win here in any meaningful way. Russia already lost too much armor without gaining anything but a land route to Crimea (which it needs to secure somehow). Russia does not have any modern tech of its own production and population that is not a supportive as the government would like. Even now real support is not as widespread but it will only get worse with economy going south. People are cheering while they still feel safe and relatively comfortable. I highly doubt Russia can do much without WMD here. And using WMD's will be a loss anyway.
sofixa 4y ago
They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. The attrition rate of troops, equipment ( which is why they've started using stuff from the reserves which was made decades ago, and probably has been maintained even worse than the supposedly combat ready equipment), morale and the general Russian economy are unsustainable. I honestly don't know how all of this could end, but Ukraine "losing" the war is extremely unlikely. Russia claiming a "win" over some very limited gains is a possibility , but that's not sustainable either. Best case scenario is a coup and immediate ceasefire, peace, one way tickets for most of the Russian high command and many of the frontline troops to The Hague. One can only dream.
- konart 4y ago
  I wasn't even talking about some kind of occupation. Even securing some sort of political victory is impossible at this point. NATO|West will be going all in into that one and we simple don't have the army\logistics or production to compete in any possible way. Either this shit is over by September or we are going for the red button in August.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. I wouldn't be so sure about that. If the Russians are brutal enough (and continue to be brutal) and the survivors have some place to flee too, they might be able to hold on to quite a bit if they can defeat the organized military by "evaporating" away those that would challenge them.
- ElectricalUnion 4y ago
  > They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. Well, there's no need for millions of survivors in wars. Right now, Russia is keeping it's line about "Ukraine is Russia" and with that, reasonable restraint towards civilians compared to Syria, but, if that is no longer "necessary" or "reasonable" in their point of view, using nukes and leaving no survivors is a cheap, cost-reducing strategy.
bryanlarsen 4y ago
Having spent way too much time down this rabbit hole, here's an opinion I synthesized from those way smarter than me. If Russia fully mobilizes (ie, declares this a war, calls up reserves, etc) AND the west slows their support, Russia can win. Ukraine has the people and the will to win, but without heavy weapons, ammo, the training to use western weapons and logistical support that's not enough. Right now Biden is trying to pass a $33B support bill. But Congress is playing their stupid politics and if it doesn't pass the alliance will probably fracture and Ukraine will also likely lose support from other Western nations. Russia is currently manpower & materiel constrained. They can fix the former by fully mobilizing. The latter is harder to fix, but they have destroyed Ukraine's production. So they if Ukraine is cut off from Western arms shipments.... But even after winning Russia still has the problem of occupying Ukraine. It's not clear that's possible with flattening the country.
- konart 4y ago
  >If Russia fully mobilizes Very big if here. People over here are not very eager to go to the frontline. Painting Z on your car is one thing. Marching to your almost certain death is another. >heavy weapons I was under the impression that heave weapons are on their way already though? Old but usable T72's from Poland and some tanks\howitzers from other countries. Surely they still need fuel, ammo and training but right now it looks like Ukraine has some time. > occupying Ukraine. I think the current plan is to destroy as much as possible (fuel, storages etc), cut off from support as much as possible and maybe enter Moldova.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Yes, a Russian victory requires (at least) two massive IF's. I'm mostly just pushing back against the narrative that a Ukrainian victory is inevitable. If it's seen as inevitable, then it becomes easier to justify not delivering the help they need.
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      Or the opposite, which I think is more likely: if it is not seen as inevitable then that will justify not delivering the help they need, ensuring the outcome matches the prediction. The biggest problem right now is to maintain unity across all of the countries that are on the other side of this line, Russia has a much easier job there than the West, with Hungary and Switzerland as the latest in the pack of useful idiots carrying Putin's water for him. With friends like that you don't need enemies.

I find it really hard to believe Ukraine can loose this war though.

by konart 4y ago

I find it really hard to believe Ukraine can loose this war though.

cargotoml 4y ago

throwaway4good 4y ago

That is another discussion; this is looking more like a war with Russia where the outcome the west is pursuing is the end of Russia as it is known today. Probably not going to be over that quickly. Anyway. An NDA is silly and unnecessary when you have far more powerful laws governing state secrets, treason etc. than anything under civil law.

simonh 4y ago
I agree with the other comments that this NDA serves a very useful purpose, by detailing all the non obvious forms of information that could be a risk, impressing on people the seriousness of keeping that information confidential, and ensuring they have no excuse to claim they were not fully informed. It also provides a route to prosecute someone who might be caught sharing information they shouldn’t maliciously, but where treason etc could not be proved.
- hnaccount_rng 4y ago
  I think you overestimate the amount of due process that will be applied in this kind of situation...
  - simonh 4y ago
    Ukraine is a functioning democratic state with a government and an operating judicial system.
jollybean 4y ago
Absolutely the opposite, it's even more necessary as a signal so that people recognize the gravity of the situation and are held accountable otherwise. It'd be probably a criminal matter not a civil one. It also gives them legal cover if they need to charge someone with something. AKA just today they announced a 'mole' high up in the civil service.

drran 4y ago

We lost the previous war with RF, then paid a huge price for that in 1932-1934. 7 million adults (this number is accepted by RF in 2008) and 23 million children (this number is not accepted by RF) were murdered by hunger during «Holodomor». We will do everything possible to avoid repeating of the genocide, but RF is a strong opponent with a lot of resources, so we need to be smarter, see better, be better equipped, and be faster. Otherwise, they will just push us inch by inch to Western border.

helge9210 4y ago
> We lost the previous war with RF, then paid a huge price for that in 1932-1934 My grandfather survived this and was the one who told me about the famine. Since then I have panic attack from time to time from the idea I won't have anything to give my children when they ask for something to eat. It's even worse now, because that's what is happening on occupied territories.
- peterburkimsher 4y ago
  How can I give you some food? Or to people in occupied territories, whoever needs it. Life has ups and downs. Thank God I'm doing OK these days, so the only appropriate response to that prosperity is to share freely. Then if/when the tides turn, someone will be able to show the same kindness. So yes, I would like to help if you can specifically say how to do so.
  - helge9210 4y ago
    Thank you for your support! Expecting current situation I and my family left Ukraine in 2012, so we currently help refugees arriving to Germany.
konart 4y ago
I mean... I am Russian-Ukrainian. I'm more or less aware. I doubt there is a way for Russia to win here in any meaningful way. Russia already lost too much armor without gaining anything but a land route to Crimea (which it needs to secure somehow). Russia does not have any modern tech of its own production and population that is not a supportive as the government would like. Even now real support is not as widespread but it will only get worse with economy going south. People are cheering while they still feel safe and relatively comfortable. I highly doubt Russia can do much without WMD here. And using WMD's will be a loss anyway.

sofixa 4y ago

They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. The attrition rate of troops, equipment ( which is why they've started using stuff from the reserves which was made decades ago, and probably has been maintained even worse than the supposedly combat ready equipment), morale and the general Russian economy are unsustainable. I honestly don't know how all of this could end, but Ukraine "losing" the war is extremely unlikely. Russia claiming a "win" over some very limited gains is a possibility , but that's not sustainable either. Best case scenario is a coup and immediate ceasefire, peace, one way tickets for most of the Russian high command and many of the frontline troops to The Hague. One can only dream.

konart 4y ago
I wasn't even talking about some kind of occupation. Even securing some sort of political victory is impossible at this point. NATO|West will be going all in into that one and we simple don't have the army\logistics or production to compete in any possible way. Either this shit is over by September or we are going for the red button in August.
tablespoon 4y ago
> They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. I wouldn't be so sure about that. If the Russians are brutal enough (and continue to be brutal) and the survivors have some place to flee too, they might be able to hold on to quite a bit if they can defeat the organized military by "evaporating" away those that would challenge them.
ElectricalUnion 4y ago
> They can't. Russia simply cannot control the tens of millions survivors of it's brutal invasion even if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, which they can't. Well, there's no need for millions of survivors in wars. Right now, Russia is keeping it's line about "Ukraine is Russia" and with that, reasonable restraint towards civilians compared to Syria, but, if that is no longer "necessary" or "reasonable" in their point of view, using nukes and leaving no survivors is a cheap, cost-reducing strategy.

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Having spent way too much time down this rabbit hole, here's an opinion I synthesized from those way smarter than me. If Russia fully mobilizes (ie, declares this a war, calls up reserves, etc) AND the west slows their support, Russia can win. Ukraine has the people and the will to win, but without heavy weapons, ammo, the training to use western weapons and logistical support that's not enough. Right now Biden is trying to pass a $33B support bill. But Congress is playing their stupid politics and if it doesn't pass the alliance will probably fracture and Ukraine will also likely lose support from other Western nations. Russia is currently manpower & materiel constrained. They can fix the former by fully mobilizing. The latter is harder to fix, but they have destroyed Ukraine's production. So they if Ukraine is cut off from Western arms shipments.... But even after winning Russia still has the problem of occupying Ukraine. It's not clear that's possible with flattening the country.

konart 4y ago
>If Russia fully mobilizes Very big if here. People over here are not very eager to go to the frontline. Painting Z on your car is one thing. Marching to your almost certain death is another. >heavy weapons I was under the impression that heave weapons are on their way already though? Old but usable T72's from Poland and some tanks\howitzers from other countries. Surely they still need fuel, ammo and training but right now it looks like Ukraine has some time. > occupying Ukraine. I think the current plan is to destroy as much as possible (fuel, storages etc), cut off from support as much as possible and maybe enter Moldova.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Yes, a Russian victory requires (at least) two massive IF's. I'm mostly just pushing back against the narrative that a Ukrainian victory is inevitable. If it's seen as inevitable, then it becomes easier to justify not delivering the help they need.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Or the opposite, which I think is more likely: if it is not seen as inevitable then that will justify not delivering the help they need, ensuring the outcome matches the prediction. The biggest problem right now is to maintain unity across all of the countries that are on the other side of this line, Russia has a much easier job there than the West, with Hungary and Switzerland as the latest in the pack of useful idiots carrying Putin's water for him. With friends like that you don't need enemies.