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> Musk... said during a recent earnings call ... "My personal guess is that we’ll achieve Full Self-Driving this year at a safety level significantly greater th

by klyrs 5y ago

> Musk... said during a recent earnings call ... "My personal guess is that we’ll achieve Full Self-Driving this year at a safety level significantly greater than a person..." Does this guy ever get tired of saying "this year" and "next year" every year and being wrong every single time? Do his investors?

burnnn 5y ago
As a developer, I completely understand this. loop: Manager: how long will this feature take? SWE: By lunchtime, tops 3 weeks later: Manager: feature complete, right? SWE (sweating bullets): We're just testing the final bits goto loop
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bussierem 5y ago
  Except the part where you don't have people throwing _very_ large quantities of money at you based on these estimates, such that when/if you're wrong it could potentially spell disaster for an entire company costing shareholder money and peoples' livelihoods/jobs. I'm not trying to claim that each individual claim of Musk's has this potential behind it, but equating it to day-to-day situations of underestimating the difficulty of a small task at your day-job oversimplifies the matter way too much and just makes excuses for someone who should TRULY know better.
phenkdo 5y ago
The non-sinner line starts over there, and goes round the block.
- klyrs 5y ago
  Loving the Bible-themed whataboutism. Musk has definitely paid for some extremely cool stuff to happen, but it's fair to point out that he's been making this particular promise since 2014. And nobody dies if I break a promise. Autopilot/FSD has claimed quite a few lives, in large part because it doesn't live up to the hype coming out of Musk's mouth.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    So you count anybody that fell asleep or didn't pay attention as a 'kill' for Autopilot (and that number is very small) while you totally ignore all the times the same software prevented accidents (a very large number). I guess that one way to analyses issues if you already have a result that you want to happen.
Gordonjcp 5y ago
> at a safety level significantly greater than a person Have they actually achieved that yet? It seems like the Teslas can only do their Autopilot magic on more-or-less straight motorways with every other car travelling at the same speed in clear weather conditions. These are circumstances in which human drivers don't have accidents, either.
- PlanckMeasure80 5y ago
  Have you ever driven one? I got to drive one for a few days. It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines. It does turns and exits. It slows down automatically for curves. It even swerved out of the way when someone was merging into me. It was fine with drivers going faster and slower than myself. Frankly, I have no idea what you’re talking about, especially regarding a clear day and straight lines. It drove better than me. In my use case, the 2021 Model 3 is already practically self-driving. I legitimately felt less safe while manual operating the vehicle.
  - jackvalentine 5y ago
    > It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines. It knew, or it guessed and presented it as it knew in the same way humans guess where the lines are and keep driving when they’re not visible?
  - slaw 5y ago
    If it drives better than you, why don’t you take back seat?
    - sidibe 5y ago
      "for legal reasons". After all that is the only reason there is a driver according to tesla.com/autopilot. And that's 5 years old, so surely we should feel comfortable in the back seat by now besides the law
  - 5y ago
paulmendoza 5y ago
He is restricting his statements more. I think what he said is probably possible this year.
panick21_ 5y ago
He himself says at least half that time his predictions are wrong. His predictions were always aggressive. He says what he believes, this topic is where he has totally miscalculated. And he recently admired that but said he just has to look at what he think the current fundamental problem is and when it will be solved. > Do his investors? Mhh as an investor I would say, no. Because for me its not about matching prediction but its about overall strategy and the competition. If there were millions of self driving taxis on the road from the competition I would suggest that is a big problem. However that is not case. Massive investment in this is the correct thing to do in my opinion. Their approach is correct in my opinion, they are trying to solve the hard problem. They have done many things that no competitor has even remotely done. So I am happy even if he miss predicts this for the next 4 years unless there is continues progress and the competition has not 100% solved the problem.

by klyrs 5y ago

burnnn 5y ago

As a developer, I completely understand this. loop: Manager: how long will this feature take? SWE: By lunchtime, tops 3 weeks later: Manager: feature complete, right? SWE (sweating bullets): We're just testing the final bits goto loop

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bussierem 5y ago
Except the part where you don't have people throwing _very_ large quantities of money at you based on these estimates, such that when/if you're wrong it could potentially spell disaster for an entire company costing shareholder money and peoples' livelihoods/jobs. I'm not trying to claim that each individual claim of Musk's has this potential behind it, but equating it to day-to-day situations of underestimating the difficulty of a small task at your day-job oversimplifies the matter way too much and just makes excuses for someone who should TRULY know better.

phenkdo 5y ago

The non-sinner line starts over there, and goes round the block.

klyrs 5y ago
Loving the Bible-themed whataboutism. Musk has definitely paid for some extremely cool stuff to happen, but it's fair to point out that he's been making this particular promise since 2014. And nobody dies if I break a promise. Autopilot/FSD has claimed quite a few lives, in large part because it doesn't live up to the hype coming out of Musk's mouth.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  So you count anybody that fell asleep or didn't pay attention as a 'kill' for Autopilot (and that number is very small) while you totally ignore all the times the same software prevented accidents (a very large number). I guess that one way to analyses issues if you already have a result that you want to happen.

Gordonjcp 5y ago

> at a safety level significantly greater than a person Have they actually achieved that yet? It seems like the Teslas can only do their Autopilot magic on more-or-less straight motorways with every other car travelling at the same speed in clear weather conditions. These are circumstances in which human drivers don't have accidents, either.

PlanckMeasure80 5y ago
Have you ever driven one? I got to drive one for a few days. It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines. It does turns and exits. It slows down automatically for curves. It even swerved out of the way when someone was merging into me. It was fine with drivers going faster and slower than myself. Frankly, I have no idea what you’re talking about, especially regarding a clear day and straight lines. It drove better than me. In my use case, the 2021 Model 3 is already practically self-driving. I legitimately felt less safe while manual operating the vehicle.
- jackvalentine 5y ago
  > It handled heavy rain. It knew where the lines were even though I couldn’t even see them myself. It does really well even when there are no lines. It knew, or it guessed and presented it as it knew in the same way humans guess where the lines are and keep driving when they’re not visible?
- slaw 5y ago
  If it drives better than you, why don’t you take back seat?
  - sidibe 5y ago
    "for legal reasons". After all that is the only reason there is a driver according to tesla.com/autopilot. And that's 5 years old, so surely we should feel comfortable in the back seat by now besides the law
- 5y ago

paulmendoza 5y ago

He is restricting his statements more. I think what he said is probably possible this year.

panick21_ 5y ago

He himself says at least half that time his predictions are wrong. His predictions were always aggressive. He says what he believes, this topic is where he has totally miscalculated. And he recently admired that but said he just has to look at what he think the current fundamental problem is and when it will be solved. > Do his investors? Mhh as an investor I would say, no. Because for me its not about matching prediction but its about overall strategy and the competition. If there were millions of self driving taxis on the road from the competition I would suggest that is a big problem. However that is not case. Massive investment in this is the correct thing to do in my opinion. Their approach is correct in my opinion, they are trying to solve the hard problem. They have done many things that no competitor has even remotely done. So I am happy even if he miss predicts this for the next 4 years unless there is continues progress and the competition has not 100% solved the problem.