4 ms·
> That instruction is a flaw in the experiment. It's always impossible to tell, for any given sequence, whether it was produced by a fair die. There's nothing a
by asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
> That instruction is a flaw in the experiment. It's always impossible to tell, for any given sequence, whether it was produced by a fair die. There's nothing an experimental subject can do to make the impossible more impossible.
I don't think it's a flawed instruction -- i.e., I believe most participants will read it as intended, and it will produce interesting results. I read it as follows:
"Suppose we show a person your sequence and a sequence generated via an actual random number generator. Minimize the average probability that that person correctly guesses which sequence was generated by a human, across all possible real random sequences."
I guess most other people would read it that way, even it is not formally correct from a statistical perspective. And I believe it gets at what they're trying to measure.
- denton-scratch 4y ago> I guess most other people would read it that way Not me. But as I said upthread, that's the only way I can construe the question as being coherent. And I agree that the question thus construed invites the experimental subject to make predictions about the behaviour of others; so the question tests the subject's accuracy in psychological judgements. If you construe it as being a coherent question. I think it's silly to construe it that way; I just think it was a crap question, and you can't draw any conclusions at all from the results.