> It is highly unlikely Putin will use tactical nukes or pre-emptively strike US/EU, no matter how grim the war looks. I wouldn't be so sure about this. He has

> It is highly unlikely Putin will use tactical nukes or pre-emptively strike US/EU, no matter how grim the war looks. I wouldn't be so sure about this. He has working hypersonics and this advantage would last very short time. Currently those hypersonics can't be even detected in time before they hit their targets and there is no real defense against them. He might just launch 100-200 of them with 100kT payload at military/strategic targets in Europe at the same time, level down parts of countries without any response outside submarines or US strategic nukes (their flight time is in minutes anywhere in Europe, insufficient time to react), and then given Europe would be written off for a century, he can try to negotiate terms with the US, assuming MAD is given if diplomacy fails and there is a proof already (destroyed Europe). He perceives UA effectively in NATO (given heavy arm supplies) as an existential risk for Russia, so he might go all in.