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The Era of ‘The Car You Own Forever’ Is Coming to an End

8 points by clouddrover 5y ago

nicbou 5y ago
This is a line in the sand I will not cross. My vehicles are the most expensive things I ever owned. They're also my longest-term purchases. I already struggle with phone manufacturers crippling their phones with software updates. I'm not ready for this to happen to my car or motorbike. My car is from 2006. Will the greedy people who sell me a car in 2022 maintain its software in 2038? Will its dashboard still promote defunct services? Will it start showing ads after a bad quarter at the car company? Will they raise the prices just because they can?
entropicgravity 5y ago
The future of cars will be dramatically much more different than this. The key factor is that electric transportation scales much better than IC technology. Everything from kids small toys to the biggest moving machines on earth, and every size in between, can be easily built with electric technology and they produce zero exhaust emissions. In fact the transition to this future is already happening right before our eyes. Last year in the US there were ten times as many ebikes sold as there were conventional electric cars. Ebikes though are unlikely to be the final form of the future's urban transportation. It's more likely to be much smaller (than today's cars) but with four wheels and taking up about one half the width of today's standard car lane. Today's cars are a compromise machine. Big enough to travel across country but also awkwardly just small enough to move around city centers. Before too long urbanites will have three vehicles, one of which might be a shared 'car' similar to what this author imagines. But the other two will be an ebike and a smaller electric vehicle for urban environments, capable of carrying two passengers in tandem, but enclosed and costing around $3k to $10k with a top speed of around 50 mph. These smaller vehicles will be owned by their user. This transition will be driven by city councils. First they will ban IC cars from the crowded city centers, which will quite literally clear the air. Later, they will allow only the mini cars in the city center. Because these mini cars will occupy just one half of a normal car width, this will double the capacity of the existing road networks for almost zero cost. The future is here: [1] . But likely, just a tad bigger. [1] https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/will-be-the-future-canadian-billionaire-develops-one-seat-electric-vehicle-to-fight-traffic-woes-1.5397396 https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/will-be-the-future-canadian-...
tomohawk 5y ago
Unless software licensing is reformed, there will no longer be a right of first sale, and only oligarchs will own anything.
jfengel 5y ago
I don't "bond" with my car. I keep my cars a really long time. I purchased cars new in 1992, 2007, and 2020. I cared for them properly, and drove them until they required too many new parts (with well over 250k miles). The trade-in was always basically zero. I would keep them forever if they didn't wear out, not because I care about it but because I don't. It's a tool; I don't want to spend money on replacing a tool that works. When it stops working, I get a new one. I feel the same about my phone, and that's fine with me. I suppose I'm sorry for the hobbyists who want more out of their car, but I think there are a lot more people like me than like you, and the industry is going to cater to us. That's what allows us to have affordable, simple objects that do the job. I'll feel outraged if it ends up costing more, but not just because I don't really own it.

8 points by clouddrover 5y ago

This is a line in the sand I will not cross. My vehicles are the most expensive things I ever owned. They're also my longest-term purchases. I already struggle with phone manufacturers crippling their phones with software updates. I'm not ready for this to happen to my car or motorbike. My car is from 2006. Will the greedy people who sell me a car in 2022 maintain its software in 2038? Will its dashboard still promote defunct services? Will it start showing ads after a bad quarter at the car company? Will they raise the prices just because they can?

entropicgravity 5y ago

The future of cars will be dramatically much more different than this. The key factor is that electric transportation scales much better than IC technology. Everything from kids small toys to the biggest moving machines on earth, and every size in between, can be easily built with electric technology and they produce zero exhaust emissions. In fact the transition to this future is already happening right before our eyes. Last year in the US there were ten times as many ebikes sold as there were conventional electric cars. Ebikes though are unlikely to be the final form of the future's urban transportation. It's more likely to be much smaller (than today's cars) but with four wheels and taking up about one half the width of today's standard car lane. Today's cars are a compromise machine. Big enough to travel across country but also awkwardly just small enough to move around city centers. Before too long urbanites will have three vehicles, one of which might be a shared 'car' similar to what this author imagines. But the other two will be an ebike and a smaller electric vehicle for urban environments, capable of carrying two passengers in tandem, but enclosed and costing around $3k to $10k with a top speed of around 50 mph. These smaller vehicles will be owned by their user. This transition will be driven by city councils. First they will ban IC cars from the crowded city centers, which will quite literally clear the air. Later, they will allow only the mini cars in the city center. Because these mini cars will occupy just one half of a normal car width, this will double the capacity of the existing road networks for almost zero cost. The future is here: [1] . But likely, just a tad bigger. [1] https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/will-be-the-future-canadian-billionaire-develops-one-seat-electric-vehicle-to-fight-traffic-woes-1.5397396 https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/will-be-the-future-canadian-...

tomohawk 5y ago

Unless software licensing is reformed, there will no longer be a right of first sale, and only oligarchs will own anything.

jfengel 5y ago

I don't "bond" with my car. I keep my cars a really long time. I purchased cars new in 1992, 2007, and 2020. I cared for them properly, and drove them until they required too many new parts (with well over 250k miles). The trade-in was always basically zero. I would keep them forever if they didn't wear out, not because I care about it but because I don't. It's a tool; I don't want to spend money on replacing a tool that works. When it stops working, I get a new one. I feel the same about my phone, and that's fine with me. I suppose I'm sorry for the hobbyists who want more out of their car, but I think there are a lot more people like me than like you, and the industry is going to cater to us. That's what allows us to have affordable, simple objects that do the job. I'll feel outraged if it ends up costing more, but not just because I don't really own it.