4 ms·
Why do you expect an inflection point? At steady-state, there should be a change of that sort described. But the hypothetical intent was to establish these mask
by manwe150 4y ago
Why do you expect an inflection point? At steady-state, there should be a change of that sort described. But the hypothetical intent was to establish these masking policies while still in the early, exponential portion of the graph. When the spread is doubling every 3 days, shouldn’t we expect it to be hard to visually observe a change to the number of days it takes to double the cases? That thus rhetorically leaves us stuck with a significant difference between “no effect” and “moderate-but impossible-to-quantify effect” however
- native_samples 4y agoThe serial interval is/was three days, that's not the same thing as doubling time. Serial interval is how long it takes someone who just got infected to become infectious and pass it on. Regardless, the answer is no. Inflection points should be clearly visible because the underlying dynamic is organic, and mass-scale human intervention is inorganic/synchronized. Remember - the policy is justified exclusively on the basis of creating those inflection points. Nothing else. If no such points are visible the policy is a failure and we're left with only the downsides (of which there are many!).
- manwe150 4y agoI think you are thinking of the term discontinuities? Inflection points are notoriously not easily visible in graphs. Here’s an inflection point for example: https://www.calculushowto.com/inflection-point/ https://www.calculushowto.com/inflection-point/