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Did analysts predict that iPhone sales would completely crash and burn because of the lack of a redesigned iPhone? If Apple had indeed made a new form factor,

Did analysts predict that iPhone sales would completely crash and burn because of the lack of a redesigned iPhone? If Apple had indeed made a new form factor, would the sales have been 4 million or do you think they would be more than that? How much more?

tptacek 15y ago
The iPhone 4S appears to be outselling the iPhone 4, which was a ground-up redesign of the iPhone, and (IIRC) Apple's most successful product introduction ever. They could sell 50 million phones and you'd still be able to write this comment. "How much more than 50MM phones would they have sold with a different form factor?" These sales numbers do in fact make the analysts look stupid.
- cooldeal 15y ago
  >The iPhone 4S appears to be outselling the iPhone 4, which was a ground-up redesign of the iPhone, and (IIRC) Apple's most successful product introduction ever. The market is definitely bigger, not to mention Verizon and Sprint getting the iPhone, so the number aren't directly comparable. >They could sell 50 million phones and you'd still be able to write this comment. "How much more than 50MM phones would they have sold with a different form factor?" And that question would still be valid. I was basing my question on my personal experience that many of my friends with a 3GS immediately jumped on the iPhone 4 regardless of contracts, but aren't that interested into moving to the 4S. I know that's just an anecdote, maybe others can share theirs. >These sales numbers do in fact make the analysts look stupid. Maybe I missed some of the articles, but the ones I read stated that the release was somewhat disappointing but the phone will still sell a lot. Apple has built a reputation for suddenly unveiling groundbreaking design and hardware and this lead to people expecting(wrongly or rightly) them to repeat it.
  - tptacek 15y ago
    If you think it's reasonable to wonder whether an even better case design might allow Apple to sell more than fifty million phones in one week, there's not much room for productive conversation between you & I.
    - cooldeal 15y ago
      Why is it an unreasonable question? Won't a LOT of iPhone 4 users upgrade to a new design rather than a 4S? There are tens of millions of iPhone 4 users.
  - rsynnott 15y ago
    > I know that's just an anecdote, maybe others can share theirs. Okay. Most people I know who had a 3GS still have a 3GS; some are thinking of getting a 4S to replace it. Very few replaced it with a 4. I went from a 3G to a 4 myself.
- kenjackson 15y ago
  I'm curious, which analyst said the iPhone4s wasn't going to sell? I said, "I don't think it's inconsistent that this is a somewhat disappointing rev, yet will likely be their best-selling phone to date." Lets look at this quote (http://www.internetnews.com/xSP/print.php/3668131 http://www.internetnews.com/xSP/print.php/3668131): "In the first month of general availability, sales of Vista exceeded 20 million licenses, which is more than double the initial pace of sales for XP, which sold 17 million units in the first two months following its August 2001 release." And Vista, unlike the 4s, isn't strictly superior to its predecessor.

tptacek 15y ago

The iPhone 4S appears to be outselling the iPhone 4, which was a ground-up redesign of the iPhone, and (IIRC) Apple's most successful product introduction ever. They could sell 50 million phones and you'd still be able to write this comment. "How much more than 50MM phones would they have sold with a different form factor?" These sales numbers do in fact make the analysts look stupid.

cooldeal 15y ago
>The iPhone 4S appears to be outselling the iPhone 4, which was a ground-up redesign of the iPhone, and (IIRC) Apple's most successful product introduction ever. The market is definitely bigger, not to mention Verizon and Sprint getting the iPhone, so the number aren't directly comparable. >They could sell 50 million phones and you'd still be able to write this comment. "How much more than 50MM phones would they have sold with a different form factor?" And that question would still be valid. I was basing my question on my personal experience that many of my friends with a 3GS immediately jumped on the iPhone 4 regardless of contracts, but aren't that interested into moving to the 4S. I know that's just an anecdote, maybe others can share theirs. >These sales numbers do in fact make the analysts look stupid. Maybe I missed some of the articles, but the ones I read stated that the release was somewhat disappointing but the phone will still sell a lot. Apple has built a reputation for suddenly unveiling groundbreaking design and hardware and this lead to people expecting(wrongly or rightly) them to repeat it.
- tptacek 15y ago
  If you think it's reasonable to wonder whether an even better case design might allow Apple to sell more than fifty million phones in one week, there's not much room for productive conversation between you & I.
  - cooldeal 15y ago
    Why is it an unreasonable question? Won't a LOT of iPhone 4 users upgrade to a new design rather than a 4S? There are tens of millions of iPhone 4 users.
- rsynnott 15y ago
  > I know that's just an anecdote, maybe others can share theirs. Okay. Most people I know who had a 3GS still have a 3GS; some are thinking of getting a 4S to replace it. Very few replaced it with a 4. I went from a 3G to a 4 myself.
kenjackson 15y ago
I'm curious, which analyst said the iPhone4s wasn't going to sell? I said, "I don't think it's inconsistent that this is a somewhat disappointing rev, yet will likely be their best-selling phone to date." Lets look at this quote (http://www.internetnews.com/xSP/print.php/3668131 http://www.internetnews.com/xSP/print.php/3668131): "In the first month of general availability, sales of Vista exceeded 20 million licenses, which is more than double the initial pace of sales for XP, which sold 17 million units in the first two months following its August 2001 release." And Vista, unlike the 4s, isn't strictly superior to its predecessor.