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Isnt this the fallacy? Aren't those minimum prize percentages set in advance? As in, if a machine has a 0.0002% chance jackpot it will have that with each pull
by daveguy 5y ago
Isnt this the fallacy? Aren't those minimum prize percentages set in advance? As in, if a machine has a 0.0002% chance jackpot it will have that with each pull and no less (ie minimum prize percentage). Minimum prize percentage just means it never goes below a certain percentage (eg it can't go to zero). Also, the smaller payouts can be higher minimum percent. But over the long term the payout is always less than the cost to play.
- jrockway 5y agoMy understanding is that the algorithm is something like: func doTheyWin(): if timeSinceLastWin < 10: winPercentage = 1 else if timeSinceLastWin < 100: winPercentage = 25 else: winPercentage = 99 return random(100) < winPercentage That is an algorithm designed to meet people's expectations of the gambler's fallacy, basically. Other comments say that slot machines in Las Vegas are prohibited from using this algorithm, but nothing is stopping, say, video games from doing this. (Hearthstone has a "pity timer" for giving you legendary cards in card packs, for example. It's random until it feels bad for you, or more likely the data shows that you won't buy any more card packs and they'll go out of business if they don't give you a legendary every 40 card packs or whatever.)