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Slot machines are a much worse example because they have programmed minimum prize percentages, so if one has gone without a win for a while then it's more likel

Slot machines are a much worse example because they have programmed minimum prize percentages, so if one has gone without a win for a while then it's more likely to win than average. With the lottery ticket, there was really no reason to have made that decision.

daveguy 5y ago
Isnt this the fallacy? Aren't those minimum prize percentages set in advance? As in, if a machine has a 0.0002% chance jackpot it will have that with each pull and no less (ie minimum prize percentage). Minimum prize percentage just means it never goes below a certain percentage (eg it can't go to zero). Also, the smaller payouts can be higher minimum percent. But over the long term the payout is always less than the cost to play.
- jrockway 5y ago
  My understanding is that the algorithm is something like: func doTheyWin(): if timeSinceLastWin < 10: winPercentage = 1 else if timeSinceLastWin < 100: winPercentage = 25 else: winPercentage = 99 return random(100) < winPercentage That is an algorithm designed to meet people's expectations of the gambler's fallacy, basically. Other comments say that slot machines in Las Vegas are prohibited from using this algorithm, but nothing is stopping, say, video games from doing this. (Hearthstone has a "pity timer" for giving you legendary cards in card packs, for example. It's random until it feels bad for you, or more likely the data shows that you won't buy any more card packs and they'll go out of business if they don't give you a legendary every 40 card packs or whatever.)
moondev 5y ago
In roulette they post the last 20 or so results, the reason they do it is because the marble is not self aware of previous results, each marble roll is an independent event. I'm unsure if slots are like this, I guess it would depend on the quality of the RNG and trust in the casino/machine that it's configured correctly.
- ac29 5y ago
  > In roulette they post the last 20 or so results, the reason they do it is because the marble is not self aware of previous results, each marble roll is an independent event. The reason they do this is the above, but actually because people are dumb and think they can see patterns that dont exist ("look the same number came up twice in a row! i better place a bet")
  - somehnacct3757 5y ago
    There was a time when you could infer a wooden roulette wheel's bias by collecting enough samples. I think now the casinos track this and retire biased wheels, which is why they have the data feed in the first place. And then yeah, why not publish it to make more types of gamblers interested in the game!
Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
> so if one has gone without a win for a while then it's more likely to win than average. This isn't true. At least, in Las Vegas, by law every spin must have RNG that is independent of previous spins. They can't be programmed to "go cold" after a jackpot, or guarantee a win after a cold streak.

daveguy 5y ago

Isnt this the fallacy? Aren't those minimum prize percentages set in advance? As in, if a machine has a 0.0002% chance jackpot it will have that with each pull and no less (ie minimum prize percentage). Minimum prize percentage just means it never goes below a certain percentage (eg it can't go to zero). Also, the smaller payouts can be higher minimum percent. But over the long term the payout is always less than the cost to play.

jrockway 5y ago
My understanding is that the algorithm is something like: func doTheyWin(): if timeSinceLastWin < 10: winPercentage = 1 else if timeSinceLastWin < 100: winPercentage = 25 else: winPercentage = 99 return random(100) < winPercentage That is an algorithm designed to meet people's expectations of the gambler's fallacy, basically. Other comments say that slot machines in Las Vegas are prohibited from using this algorithm, but nothing is stopping, say, video games from doing this. (Hearthstone has a "pity timer" for giving you legendary cards in card packs, for example. It's random until it feels bad for you, or more likely the data shows that you won't buy any more card packs and they'll go out of business if they don't give you a legendary every 40 card packs or whatever.)

moondev 5y ago

In roulette they post the last 20 or so results, the reason they do it is because the marble is not self aware of previous results, each marble roll is an independent event. I'm unsure if slots are like this, I guess it would depend on the quality of the RNG and trust in the casino/machine that it's configured correctly.

ac29 5y ago
> In roulette they post the last 20 or so results, the reason they do it is because the marble is not self aware of previous results, each marble roll is an independent event. The reason they do this is the above, but actually because people are dumb and think they can see patterns that dont exist ("look the same number came up twice in a row! i better place a bet")
- somehnacct3757 5y ago
  There was a time when you could infer a wooden roulette wheel's bias by collecting enough samples. I think now the casinos track this and retire biased wheels, which is why they have the data feed in the first place. And then yeah, why not publish it to make more types of gamblers interested in the game!

Sohcahtoa82 5y ago

> so if one has gone without a win for a while then it's more likely to win than average. This isn't true. At least, in Las Vegas, by law every spin must have RNG that is independent of previous spins. They can't be programmed to "go cold" after a jackpot, or guarantee a win after a cold streak.