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> - interestingly, the CFO just said they have too many people at teh company, though he didn't clarify if it was warehouse or developers, I'm guessing its most
by donavanm 4y ago
> - interestingly, the CFO just said they have too many people at teh company, though he didn't clarify if it was warehouse or developers, I'm guessing its mostly the former and any developer head count downsizing will come from employees who leave due to a share price that is coming down
I concur. I believe those comments were around having scaled up in 20-21 to meet (product sales) demand. There was also a comment along the lines of having organically shed ~100K jobs in '22 Q1. There's just no way that volume is dev/services employees. Beyond that the profits (and more and more revenue) are really coming from the services side of teh house, I'm not sure why they'd cut employee count there.
> - retention of employee's could be interesting to watch as a stock that could very likely be worth less in a years time than it is now would be a big paycut for alot of devs.
Two notes. RSU grants for existing employees are usually 1-2 years out, and the grant price is computed in Q1. That means that the `20 grants are currently down from $3,190 to $2,650 AH. Similar for `21 grants with a planning price of $3,011. Every highly compensated Amazon employee (eg devs) is looking to a real ~12-17% pay cut to RSUs over the next two years. And this is entirely ignoring the ~15% per year stock price growth that gets factored in to the "total comp target" value.
> - their trailing 12M P/E was 124 and their forward 12M P/E is 55, so everyone expects far less growth in the future
This is what really scares me. A current P/E of 45-55 still has plenty of room to fall compared to the rest of the services/it/cloud/ad industry. If growth/earnings remain stalled it's entirely plausible for the stock price to go back down to $1,500-2,000. And that could be fair long term for a services heavy company. But what the heck is that going to do employee comp, retention, and hiring?
Disclaimer: principal at AWS. Everything above is my own opinion and based on public information (eg earnings call & filings) or personal compensation information.
- Olreich 4y agoFeels like they’re betting on stock split to diversify their investor pool away from big Wall Street firms and toward retail investors who might be more hopeful of Amazon’s investment potential.