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I think this is temporary. For a few reasons. So much of the US economic system is tied to commercial real estate. Small business loans to sandwich shops, park
by testbjjl 4y ago
I think this is temporary. For a few reasons.
So much of the US economic system is tied to commercial real estate. Small business loans to sandwich shops, parking garages, office building and the people and companies that support them, build them, plan them, etc. It’s an industry that is not going to die.
I think the “kids” today will swing the pendulum back to working in the office after having spent significant periods of their adolescence on lockdown. People who think remote is forever will resent the next generation for these reasons. Resentment leads to replacement, the tech stacks aren’t as technical as they used to be. The cloud can make beginners rockstars.
When data can be produced to show quarterly earnings from non remote companies (Msft, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, presumably Twitter and more Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Exxon Mobile) are “better” than remote, the CEO will demand everyone back to the office. I think the ones that will remain remote are more call centers, insurance, billing and customer support. I don’t think that those jobs are very compelling to folks with CS degrees and backgrounds.
It’s crazy to think employees have the power here by going remote. Once you’re locked into living out of state and your company goes back to the office, those remote salaries in the US will rival remote salaries elsewhere in the world, and remote developers will work multiple remote jobs, poorly further depressing earnings or revenue.
We’re just well on one side of the pendulum. The middle is not hybrid, but telework (like one day a week), and the extreme opposite is no jobs due to recession and employees fighting for a space in a cubicle.
As an example, I bought a house in the Bay Area in 2009. The market was so depressed that they gave me an $8000 tax credit and a low interest rate for doing it. When I talk about that now people think I am a crazy person. Things change because we make the stuff up as we go along.