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"Penn and Deutsch looked at the consequences of several scenarios, from global warming remaining at the minimum expectation to high emission scenarios that woul
by radford-neal 4y ago
"Penn and Deutsch looked at the consequences of several scenarios, from global warming remaining at the minimum expectation to high emission scenarios that would result in 32 degrees Fahrenheit of warming during the next three hundred years."
32 degrees Fahrenheit (17.8 degrees Celsius) is far beyond what the latest IPCC report considers likely. The AR6 report gives the likely Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (eventual temperature increase from doubling of CO2) as 2.5-4.0 C. The response to CO2 is roughly logarithmic, so the effect of each doubling is about the same. So 17.8 Celsius corresponds to between 4.5 and 7.1 doublings. Current CO2 levels are less than double pre-industrial levels, and it is very, very unlikely that we will ever get to 4.5 doublings.