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Housing units per capita is at an all time high. Housing units per working age person is at an all time high, by far. Housing units per household is at year 20

Housing units per capita is at an all time high. Housing units per working age person is at an all time high, by far. Housing units per household is at year 2000 levels and in line with history. Check the data, it's all on FRED What you're repeating is common conversational talking points spread as fact. It is true that building slowed in the 2010s, but housing was overbuilt in the 2000s too which neutralizes that. Also number of housing units under construction is at an all time high right now, while population growth is the slowest ever (including immigration) and decelerating. Look to the Japanese property sector for the future of US pricing. Demographic story is a long one that will take decades to play out though. Immigration policy could change things

colinmhayes 5y ago
Japanese property values are reasonable because their zoning is decided at the national level and local residents have next to 0 power to stop people from building things in properly zoned areas.
- adam_arthur 5y ago
  That's a big reason too, but also because their population is declining. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+r... What do you think happens to housing units per capita as population levels decline? The US and China are on the same path, just some years behind. We can ignore demographics for the next handful of years, but it will become very impactful on a 10+ year time horizon. China will deal with the inverted population pyramid sooner than us, so it will be interesting to see if that affects their GDP surpassing the US. Anyway, the property sector will be super interesting in 50 years, when everything is overbuilt relative to population size. I imagine eventually rents will naturally become deflationary
- jbay808 5y ago
  Japan also had a colossal real estate bubble pop in the early 90s, which created lasting lessons for Japanese real estate speculators.

colinmhayes 5y ago

Japanese property values are reasonable because their zoning is decided at the national level and local residents have next to 0 power to stop people from building things in properly zoned areas.

adam_arthur 5y ago
That's a big reason too, but also because their population is declining. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+r... What do you think happens to housing units per capita as population levels decline? The US and China are on the same path, just some years behind. We can ignore demographics for the next handful of years, but it will become very impactful on a 10+ year time horizon. China will deal with the inverted population pyramid sooner than us, so it will be interesting to see if that affects their GDP surpassing the US. Anyway, the property sector will be super interesting in 50 years, when everything is overbuilt relative to population size. I imagine eventually rents will naturally become deflationary
jbay808 5y ago
Japan also had a colossal real estate bubble pop in the early 90s, which created lasting lessons for Japanese real estate speculators.