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I'm not so sure that China is simply bluffing. The recent lockdowns in Shanghai is very peculiar. It does not appear to be aimed at reducing transmission, rathe

I'm not so sure that China is simply bluffing. The recent lockdowns in Shanghai is very peculiar. It does not appear to be aimed at reducing transmission, rather it looks like mobilization during war time. I'm inclined to think that its a sort of a civilian war exercise in case the mainland faces retaliatory strikes but for what? Xi like Putin is on the edge of the cliff. When strongman fear an uprising, they create external conflicts to mobilize the crowd. For Putin, it was 3 decades of stealing from the Russian state and people with covid decimating it's economy. Similarly for Xi, it is the continued economic growth that legitimizes its power and with the deflation of its real estate industry, zero covid strategy touted by xi, that in turn created an economic fall out, it's do or die for Xi before the 20th party congress in a 4 months or so. I fear that Taiwan will suddenly find itself in a situation like Ukraine except I do not think the US and its allies will allow China to gain unchecked access to the Pacific ocean by taking Taiwan and its semiconductor production that US military depends on.

mschuster91 4y ago
I see the current Chinese lockdown as the ultimate "never ever lose face, no matter how high the cost" scenario. China decided very early on to solely allow their vaccines (which turned out to be pretty low quality) and to combine that with a rigorous containment policy. The idea of a containment policy was pretty solid and effective (even though the measures taken were sometimes beyond all reasonability), the problem was that the low vaccine efficiency completely imploded that idea with the Omicron mutants. And now, the Chinese government is in a pretty bad place politically... their choices are a) to admit that the vaccines are shit, allow internationally recognized vaccines and keep containment policy until these have been rolled out b) admit that the containment policy has failed and accept the spread of covid like most Western countries did or c) counteract the improved spreadability and immuno-escape capabilities of SARS-CoV-2 by harsher containment measures. Neither of these three options are good, and I believe that the fear of Xi's regime to "lose face" will inevitably lead them to option c) as it is the only way that does not force the regime to admit that their decisions have been faulty - the central committee can simply declare lower ranks not following orders are the culprits and so Xi's face is saved. There is also an addendum - as all three options lead to a severe hit in popularity and correspondingly a threat of the stability of the Chinese government, the regime may decide to invade Taiwan for political gains ("we led the secessionists back into the homeland"). The key question there is if the regime is willing to risk a Russian scale defeat, as unlike Russia China has practically zero experience in military conflict and Taiwan has a direct bilateral defense agreement with the US.
- bubbleRefuge 4y ago
  Yeah. And US, British, and Australian naval power are formidable.

mschuster91 4y ago

I see the current Chinese lockdown as the ultimate "never ever lose face, no matter how high the cost" scenario. China decided very early on to solely allow their vaccines (which turned out to be pretty low quality) and to combine that with a rigorous containment policy. The idea of a containment policy was pretty solid and effective (even though the measures taken were sometimes beyond all reasonability), the problem was that the low vaccine efficiency completely imploded that idea with the Omicron mutants. And now, the Chinese government is in a pretty bad place politically... their choices are a) to admit that the vaccines are shit, allow internationally recognized vaccines and keep containment policy until these have been rolled out b) admit that the containment policy has failed and accept the spread of covid like most Western countries did or c) counteract the improved spreadability and immuno-escape capabilities of SARS-CoV-2 by harsher containment measures. Neither of these three options are good, and I believe that the fear of Xi's regime to "lose face" will inevitably lead them to option c) as it is the only way that does not force the regime to admit that their decisions have been faulty - the central committee can simply declare lower ranks not following orders are the culprits and so Xi's face is saved. There is also an addendum - as all three options lead to a severe hit in popularity and correspondingly a threat of the stability of the Chinese government, the regime may decide to invade Taiwan for political gains ("we led the secessionists back into the homeland"). The key question there is if the regime is willing to risk a Russian scale defeat, as unlike Russia China has practically zero experience in military conflict and Taiwan has a direct bilateral defense agreement with the US.

bubbleRefuge 4y ago
Yeah. And US, British, and Australian naval power are formidable.