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Also due to the fact that we stopped building new homes after 08. If supply keeps up with rising demand prices don't change.

gruez 5y ago
>Also due to the fact that we stopped building new homes after 08. That's easily refuted with a quick search. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
- aeternum 5y ago
  If you zoom out on that graph, housing starts were well-below average for over a decade and were actually trending down even before 08: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Decreased supply along with increasing population(demand) generally yields a shortage and increased prices.
- presentation 5y ago
  It’s probably also that it really depends on the place. If you’re in SF really does feel like the housing market has stood still.
giantrobot 5y ago
I'm currently sitting in a house that completed construction in December. I suspect your information might not be right.
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041889/construction-year-homes-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041889/construction-yea...
  - monkeynotes 5y ago
    Even your source shows that ~17M homes have been built since 2008. I mean, it's a drop off from previous decades, but it's hyperbole to say no homes have been built.
- marcusverus 5y ago
  "stopped building new homes" is clearly an exaggeration, but the spirit of the comment is spot on. Housing starts did collapse around '08, and only returned to the historical average in ~2021. Even so, we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now! How can there be any doubt that this production glut has played a huge role in the rise of housing prices? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now The population was growing around 1.1% a year in the 70s; it was 0.75% the last decade and is currently between 0.1% and 0.25% [1]. [1] https://united-states.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-indicators/growth_by_decade/population/tools/ https://united-states.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-in...
    - bobthepanda 5y ago
      To compare to housing starts, you need to compare to absolute numbers. You also need to consider the fact that household sizes are trending downwards pretty consistently, so there needs to be more houses for the same number of people.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
jermaustin1 5y ago
This is a complete anecdote, but I am surrounded by new neighborhoods all built in the last couple of years, and some new ones being built now. We also have a BUNCH of new 4 story apartments that have never been seen in suburban Houston before 2020. I know Houston supposedly got a HUGE influx of people leaving NYC and SV in 2020-2021, but still, my home town of around 20k people just got 2 brand new neighborhoods in 2021 with 500 homes between them all selling for $300k+ when you used to be able to buy a house in town for $50-100k. Even with record breaking housing development, the cost of homes in the last few years in Houston has been ridiculous.
- conductr 5y ago
  That's primarily linked to commodity/labor prices over the past couple years. And, to some degree because developers know that people buying in Texas have to buy. It's not like they're looking to upgrade from a current residence, they've already moved and have no place to live.
adam_arthur 5y ago
Housing units per capita is at an all time high. Housing units per working age person is at an all time high, by far. Housing units per household is at year 2000 levels and in line with history. Check the data, it's all on FRED What you're repeating is common conversational talking points spread as fact. It is true that building slowed in the 2010s, but housing was overbuilt in the 2000s too which neutralizes that. Also number of housing units under construction is at an all time high right now, while population growth is the slowest ever (including immigration) and decelerating. Look to the Japanese property sector for the future of US pricing. Demographic story is a long one that will take decades to play out though. Immigration policy could change things
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  Japanese property values are reasonable because their zoning is decided at the national level and local residents have next to 0 power to stop people from building things in properly zoned areas.
  - adam_arthur 5y ago
    That's a big reason too, but also because their population is declining. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+r... What do you think happens to housing units per capita as population levels decline? The US and China are on the same path, just some years behind. We can ignore demographics for the next handful of years, but it will become very impactful on a 10+ year time horizon. China will deal with the inverted population pyramid sooner than us, so it will be interesting to see if that affects their GDP surpassing the US. Anyway, the property sector will be super interesting in 50 years, when everything is overbuilt relative to population size. I imagine eventually rents will naturally become deflationary
  - jbay808 5y ago
    Japan also had a colossal real estate bubble pop in the early 90s, which created lasting lessons for Japanese real estate speculators.

gruez 5y ago

>Also due to the fact that we stopped building new homes after 08. That's easily refuted with a quick search. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

aeternum 5y ago
If you zoom out on that graph, housing starts were well-below average for over a decade and were actually trending down even before 08: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Decreased supply along with increasing population(demand) generally yields a shortage and increased prices.
presentation 5y ago
It’s probably also that it really depends on the place. If you’re in SF really does feel like the housing market has stood still.

giantrobot 5y ago

I'm currently sitting in a house that completed construction in December. I suspect your information might not be right.

colinmhayes 5y ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041889/construction-year-homes-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041889/construction-yea...
- monkeynotes 5y ago
  Even your source shows that ~17M homes have been built since 2008. I mean, it's a drop off from previous decades, but it's hyperbole to say no homes have been built.
marcusverus 5y ago
"stopped building new homes" is clearly an exaggeration, but the spirit of the comment is spot on. Housing starts did collapse around '08, and only returned to the historical average in ~2021. Even so, we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now! How can there be any doubt that this production glut has played a huge role in the rise of housing prices? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now The population was growing around 1.1% a year in the 70s; it was 0.75% the last decade and is currently between 0.1% and 0.25% [1]. [1] https://united-states.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-indicators/growth_by_decade/population/tools/ https://united-states.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-in...
  - bobthepanda 5y ago
    To compare to housing starts, you need to compare to absolute numbers. You also need to consider the fact that household sizes are trending downwards pretty consistently, so there needs to be more houses for the same number of people.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

jermaustin1 5y ago

This is a complete anecdote, but I am surrounded by new neighborhoods all built in the last couple of years, and some new ones being built now. We also have a BUNCH of new 4 story apartments that have never been seen in suburban Houston before 2020. I know Houston supposedly got a HUGE influx of people leaving NYC and SV in 2020-2021, but still, my home town of around 20k people just got 2 brand new neighborhoods in 2021 with 500 homes between them all selling for $300k+ when you used to be able to buy a house in town for $50-100k. Even with record breaking housing development, the cost of homes in the last few years in Houston has been ridiculous.

conductr 5y ago
That's primarily linked to commodity/labor prices over the past couple years. And, to some degree because developers know that people buying in Texas have to buy. It's not like they're looking to upgrade from a current residence, they've already moved and have no place to live.

adam_arthur 5y ago

Housing units per capita is at an all time high. Housing units per working age person is at an all time high, by far. Housing units per household is at year 2000 levels and in line with history. Check the data, it's all on FRED What you're repeating is common conversational talking points spread as fact. It is true that building slowed in the 2010s, but housing was overbuilt in the 2000s too which neutralizes that. Also number of housing units under construction is at an all time high right now, while population growth is the slowest ever (including immigration) and decelerating. Look to the Japanese property sector for the future of US pricing. Demographic story is a long one that will take decades to play out though. Immigration policy could change things

colinmhayes 5y ago
Japanese property values are reasonable because their zoning is decided at the national level and local residents have next to 0 power to stop people from building things in properly zoned areas.
- adam_arthur 5y ago
  That's a big reason too, but also because their population is declining. https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=japanese+population+growth+r... What do you think happens to housing units per capita as population levels decline? The US and China are on the same path, just some years behind. We can ignore demographics for the next handful of years, but it will become very impactful on a 10+ year time horizon. China will deal with the inverted population pyramid sooner than us, so it will be interesting to see if that affects their GDP surpassing the US. Anyway, the property sector will be super interesting in 50 years, when everything is overbuilt relative to population size. I imagine eventually rents will naturally become deflationary
- jbay808 5y ago
  Japan also had a colossal real estate bubble pop in the early 90s, which created lasting lessons for Japanese real estate speculators.