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This is true, but that was also the case for Russia in Afghanistan, or the US in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. It's hard to tell what Russia's goals really a

This is true, but that was also the case for Russia in Afghanistan, or the US in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. It's hard to tell what Russia's goals really are because on one hand they say "we just want the Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk to be free", and on the other hand Putin is also openly saying Ukraine isn't really an independent country. Besides, Kyiv isn't in Donetsk or Luhansk is it? Maybe Putin's map is wrong. Even if they managed to complete their military goals this week by defeating the Ukrainian armed forces and toppling the Ukrainian government they will either have to retreat and leave Ukraine independent with extremely hostile views towards Russia (and will probably try to join NATO/EU), or they will have to occupy an extremely hostile population who feel their country is invaded by a hostile malevolent power. It seems to me that Russia already lost, no matter what happens militarily; they dug themselves into a pit that will be very hard to climb out of. The biggest question is how much (more) Ukraine will lose in all of this.

DeathArrow 5y ago
They are trying to get as much as they can. Any small win will matter because they will have more than at the start of the war. They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. The easy thing for Russia is to conquer Donbass - where the population is very pro-russian and won't feel as being invaded by a malevolent country. They will probably try to conquer all Black Sea coast to cut Ukraine's access to the sea. And they will try to maintain a frozen conflict in Ukraine, so it won't join NATO. We even might see other invasions in Ukraine after the current one ends.
- Beltalowda 5y ago
  > Any small win will matter because they will have more than at the start of the war. But at what price? And getting it is one thing; keeping it quite another. Remember both Napoleon and Hitler "got" large parts of Russia, but it also proved to be a huge factor in their eventual downfall. > They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. Yes, that's what Putin said. He also attacked regions far from the Donbas region and said that Ukraine is not a real country, the implication being of course that it's really just a part of Russia. So colour me skeptical.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  1: War started in 2014. 2: Russia already holds Crimea. 3: Russia has announced intention to take over the whole Black Sea coast west to Moldova. 4: A clear majority even in easternmost Donbas want Russia out.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. They've stated a whole lot of things changing focus among them over time, not just those two (denazification of Ukraine, demilitarization of Ukraine, a state union between Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, restoration of historical Russia and reversals of territory alienated from Russia by Soviet leaders and the dissolution of the Soviet Union which was itself an embodiment, though misled, of Russia, etc., all have come from either government or state media sources.)
TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
Read Dugin's Geopolitics to understand Russia's real goals - a robust fascist empire stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, untainted by the weak and permissive liberalism of the West. It's all there - from reunification of the smaller republics, to a campaign in Ukraine, to a breakout into the rest of Europe. And lately Dugin has been suggesting that Cuba, Venezuela, and other Latin countries should be armed against the US. Ukraine was supposed to be a relatively small step in the masterplan. The "de-Nazification" pretext is ridiculous nonsense, and so is "reunification". The real goal was - and still is - annexation of the resource-rich south. Unfortunately, like most imperial politics, this plan is distilled wish fulfilment and pure fantasy. Russia doesn't have the people, the talent, or the resources to win an extended war. The Ukrainians know this, which is why their strategy is attrition. Sooner or later - possibly sooner - the economic and political cost will become unbearable. The problem is that imperialism is a form of collective narcissism, and it's incredibly difficult for leaders and followers to admit impotence and failure. So IMO there's a fair chance that Putin will reach for the nuclear option when the army is clearly failing. He seems very ill anyway, he doesn't care about his country or any of its people, and it's unlikely he has many fucks left to give. I hope there are some serious behind-the-scenes attempts being made to remove him, because I suspect that's the only way this is going to end without an impossibly horrific death toll.

DeathArrow 5y ago

They are trying to get as much as they can. Any small win will matter because they will have more than at the start of the war. They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. The easy thing for Russia is to conquer Donbass - where the population is very pro-russian and won't feel as being invaded by a malevolent country. They will probably try to conquer all Black Sea coast to cut Ukraine's access to the sea. And they will try to maintain a frozen conflict in Ukraine, so it won't join NATO. We even might see other invasions in Ukraine after the current one ends.

Beltalowda 5y ago
> Any small win will matter because they will have more than at the start of the war. But at what price? And getting it is one thing; keeping it quite another. Remember both Napoleon and Hitler "got" large parts of Russia, but it also proved to be a huge factor in their eventual downfall. > They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. Yes, that's what Putin said. He also attacked regions far from the Donbas region and said that Ukraine is not a real country, the implication being of course that it's really just a part of Russia. So colour me skeptical.
ncmncm 5y ago
1: War started in 2014. 2: Russia already holds Crimea. 3: Russia has announced intention to take over the whole Black Sea coast west to Moldova. 4: A clear majority even in easternmost Donbas want Russia out.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> They stated what their goals are: stop Ucraine from joining NATO and obtaining the independence for Donbass region. They've stated a whole lot of things changing focus among them over time, not just those two (denazification of Ukraine, demilitarization of Ukraine, a state union between Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, restoration of historical Russia and reversals of territory alienated from Russia by Soviet leaders and the dissolution of the Soviet Union which was itself an embodiment, though misled, of Russia, etc., all have come from either government or state media sources.)

TheOtherHobbes 5y ago

Read Dugin's Geopolitics to understand Russia's real goals - a robust fascist empire stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, untainted by the weak and permissive liberalism of the West. It's all there - from reunification of the smaller republics, to a campaign in Ukraine, to a breakout into the rest of Europe. And lately Dugin has been suggesting that Cuba, Venezuela, and other Latin countries should be armed against the US. Ukraine was supposed to be a relatively small step in the masterplan. The "de-Nazification" pretext is ridiculous nonsense, and so is "reunification". The real goal was - and still is - annexation of the resource-rich south. Unfortunately, like most imperial politics, this plan is distilled wish fulfilment and pure fantasy. Russia doesn't have the people, the talent, or the resources to win an extended war. The Ukrainians know this, which is why their strategy is attrition. Sooner or later - possibly sooner - the economic and political cost will become unbearable. The problem is that imperialism is a form of collective narcissism, and it's incredibly difficult for leaders and followers to admit impotence and failure. So IMO there's a fair chance that Putin will reach for the nuclear option when the army is clearly failing. He seems very ill anyway, he doesn't care about his country or any of its people, and it's unlikely he has many fucks left to give. I hope there are some serious behind-the-scenes attempts being made to remove him, because I suspect that's the only way this is going to end without an impossibly horrific death toll.