5 ms·

And yet, eventually, we will see the bug breaking through, now probably a whole different beast than we saw before, into a completely unprotected population (wi

And yet, eventually, we will see the bug breaking through, now probably a whole different beast than we saw before, into a completely unprotected population (with - in the PRC - a vaccination we don't consider particularly good). In fact, it already is happening, see how Beijing and Shanghai have outbreaks. I sincerely hope I am wrong here, but it may well be that the zero covid countries will have saved the few and sacrificed the many, three years on, and provided a new reservoir for new, more deadly variants to evolve in.

pbazarnik 5y ago
I'm in Taiwan and was here for a whole pandemic. Article is spot on but this response efficiency, visible now, was acquired over last 2 years of improvements. Taiwan had a luxury of foresight due to earlier experience with SARS, back channel information on virus developments in China thanks to proximity and countless business contacts and a favorable geographical location. Being an island it was very easy to isolate itself from the rest of the world. This may not have been possible for other countries. Zero COVID was a goal when efficiency of vaccines was still believed to be able to prevent transmission. Omicron appearance put an end to that. Taiwan's response was competent but there were several hickups: Taiwan was late to acquire vaccines due to their reliance on border closures. Delta variant sneaked through border controls due to lax airline stuff quarantine rules and some rule breaches (pilot going AWOL). There was cross resident infection in quarantine hotels due airborne transmission (red elevator) There were many overreactions: closed off outdoor parks, beaches and hiking routes despite evidence that outdoor transmission is very unlikely. Overall, solid B+ performance. Regarding more deadly variants: we can hope that evolutionary pressure we put on virus by isolating serious cases will not allow it. I hope Taiwan and rest of the world will learn from this experience so we are ready for a next outbreak (bird flu likely)
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  If Taiwan only gets a B+, most countries must have failing grades.
  - pbazarnik 5y ago
    It depends on criteria. For example, USA early vaccination ramp up is second to only United Emirates in the world. Taiwan was late in this particular aspect and quite panicked when some virus broke through quarantine measures (contained by quite heroic contact tracing efforts) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
    - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
      Yes, but the US allowed the virus to spread like wildfire before vaccines were available. Taiwan was slow to begin vaccination, but in the end, that had a relatively minor effect on mortality, because the virus was not allowed to spread in the first place.
  - NonEUCitizen 5y ago
    Participation trophies are not a thing in Confucian countries.
DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
The populations of zero-CoVID countries aren't unprotected. They're vaccinated. In mainland China, about 90% of the population has had two doses, and a good faction have been boosted (in total, 2.3 doses/person have been administered). The problem in mainland China (and in Hong Kong) is that many old people refuse to get vaccinated, for whatever reason, though there's now a big campaign to convince them to finally get their shots. There has been a lot of unjustified bashing of Chinese vaccines in the popular press in the West, but this isn't justified by the data. Chinese vaccines have similar efficacy to AstraZeneca. In the Hong Kong outbreak, 3 doses of Sinovac turned out to be just as protective as 3 doses of BioNTech/Pfizer, which was actually somewhat surprising. The bashing of Chinese vaccines in the media is just nationalist prejudice, I'm afraid. > the zero covid countries will have saved the few and sacrificed the many Zero-CoVID countries got through most of the pandemic with fewer restrictions on everyday life than countries that decided to live with the virus. One of most consistently frustrating elements of the media narrative in Europe and the US about zero-CoVID is that they depict it as never-ending lockdown. In reality, life has been closer to normal in mainland China than in the US or Europe for most of the last 2 years. International travel is extremely difficult, but inside mainland China, almost everything has been open since about April 2020. The current lockdown in Shanghai is the first major lockdown the city has had since early 2020.
- DocTomoe 5y ago
  I am not trying to make this about China in particular, but I'm biting: I would love to see some peer reviewed papers about vaccination efficiency of Chinese vs. European vs. American vs. Russian vs. Cuban vaccines (bonus points if it distinguishes about efficiency against different strains). Just like with infection numbers, which appear suspiciously low in some countries, there does not seem to be much good information on the vaccinations. > The problem in mainland China (and in Hong Kong) is that many old people refuse to get vaccinated, for whatever reason Geez, I wonder why especially old people - who lived through the CPC's chaos years with misguided policies at best and open human rights violations at worst - are reluctant to trust medical treatment that is strongly suggested by the CPC. > In reality, life has been closer to normal in mainland China than in the US or Europe for most of the last 2 years. And that I didn't contest. I am just saying that when an outbreak eventually will escape controllability, we will see a delayed mass dying. > The current lockdown in Shanghai is the first major lockdown the city has had since early 2020. I think you should also take into account that lockdown, China-style is a whole different beast from lockdown as understood by the rest of the world.

pbazarnik 5y ago

I'm in Taiwan and was here for a whole pandemic. Article is spot on but this response efficiency, visible now, was acquired over last 2 years of improvements. Taiwan had a luxury of foresight due to earlier experience with SARS, back channel information on virus developments in China thanks to proximity and countless business contacts and a favorable geographical location. Being an island it was very easy to isolate itself from the rest of the world. This may not have been possible for other countries. Zero COVID was a goal when efficiency of vaccines was still believed to be able to prevent transmission. Omicron appearance put an end to that. Taiwan's response was competent but there were several hickups: Taiwan was late to acquire vaccines due to their reliance on border closures. Delta variant sneaked through border controls due to lax airline stuff quarantine rules and some rule breaches (pilot going AWOL). There was cross resident infection in quarantine hotels due airborne transmission (red elevator) There were many overreactions: closed off outdoor parks, beaches and hiking routes despite evidence that outdoor transmission is very unlikely. Overall, solid B+ performance. Regarding more deadly variants: we can hope that evolutionary pressure we put on virus by isolating serious cases will not allow it. I hope Taiwan and rest of the world will learn from this experience so we are ready for a next outbreak (bird flu likely)

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
If Taiwan only gets a B+, most countries must have failing grades.
- pbazarnik 5y ago
  It depends on criteria. For example, USA early vaccination ramp up is second to only United Emirates in the world. Taiwan was late in this particular aspect and quite panicked when some virus broke through quarantine measures (contained by quite heroic contact tracing efforts) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    Yes, but the US allowed the virus to spread like wildfire before vaccines were available. Taiwan was slow to begin vaccination, but in the end, that had a relatively minor effect on mortality, because the virus was not allowed to spread in the first place.
- NonEUCitizen 5y ago
  Participation trophies are not a thing in Confucian countries.

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago

The populations of zero-CoVID countries aren't unprotected. They're vaccinated. In mainland China, about 90% of the population has had two doses, and a good faction have been boosted (in total, 2.3 doses/person have been administered). The problem in mainland China (and in Hong Kong) is that many old people refuse to get vaccinated, for whatever reason, though there's now a big campaign to convince them to finally get their shots. There has been a lot of unjustified bashing of Chinese vaccines in the popular press in the West, but this isn't justified by the data. Chinese vaccines have similar efficacy to AstraZeneca. In the Hong Kong outbreak, 3 doses of Sinovac turned out to be just as protective as 3 doses of BioNTech/Pfizer, which was actually somewhat surprising. The bashing of Chinese vaccines in the media is just nationalist prejudice, I'm afraid. > the zero covid countries will have saved the few and sacrificed the many Zero-CoVID countries got through most of the pandemic with fewer restrictions on everyday life than countries that decided to live with the virus. One of most consistently frustrating elements of the media narrative in Europe and the US about zero-CoVID is that they depict it as never-ending lockdown. In reality, life has been closer to normal in mainland China than in the US or Europe for most of the last 2 years. International travel is extremely difficult, but inside mainland China, almost everything has been open since about April 2020. The current lockdown in Shanghai is the first major lockdown the city has had since early 2020.

DocTomoe 5y ago
I am not trying to make this about China in particular, but I'm biting: I would love to see some peer reviewed papers about vaccination efficiency of Chinese vs. European vs. American vs. Russian vs. Cuban vaccines (bonus points if it distinguishes about efficiency against different strains). Just like with infection numbers, which appear suspiciously low in some countries, there does not seem to be much good information on the vaccinations. > The problem in mainland China (and in Hong Kong) is that many old people refuse to get vaccinated, for whatever reason Geez, I wonder why especially old people - who lived through the CPC's chaos years with misguided policies at best and open human rights violations at worst - are reluctant to trust medical treatment that is strongly suggested by the CPC. > In reality, life has been closer to normal in mainland China than in the US or Europe for most of the last 2 years. And that I didn't contest. I am just saying that when an outbreak eventually will escape controllability, we will see a delayed mass dying. > The current lockdown in Shanghai is the first major lockdown the city has had since early 2020. I think you should also take into account that lockdown, China-style is a whole different beast from lockdown as understood by the rest of the world.