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A business is valued as roughly profits times growth. The issue here is Meta used to have both growth and profit and now it mostly has profits. It doesn't mean
by marticode 4y ago
A business is valued as roughly profits times growth. The issue here is Meta used to have both growth and profit and now it mostly has profits. It doesn't mean the business is doomed obviously, but it means it should trade at a much lower valuation. A correction in PE means a huge drop in stock price despite profits still being there.
Google is growing its top line over 20% YoY and has a PE of 20. What PE would you give another business that sell ads but has a stagnating top line? Probably much less than 20.
- akhosravian 4y agoSomething to consider is google has not built an original product that matters since gmail —- Android and YouTube we’re acquisitions. I would argue they are structurally incapable of building some significant new business internally. Zuck seems pretty all in on VR, and if they actually get it somewhere good the financial reward is insane. I have no way to gauge how long his interest will last. I also have my doubts it is even possible to get it somewhere good with our current level of technology —- in short I think we need some kind of low latency neural link that doesn’t require brain surgery. Anything controller or machine vision based will never be good enough for mass market (i.e. smartphone level) appeal.
- marticode 4y agoI would argue that Google Photos, Google Apps, Google Cloud, Google TV, Google Pay, Google Chrome, ChromeOS, Maps, Chromecast, Drive, Keep, etc. are all original products that matter and often dominate their field. Android is an acquisition but Google made it the success that it is today. Conversely how many original Meta products are successes? Messenger is the only one that I can think of.
- sjg007 4y agoThese are not original products but rather fast followers after someone else proved the market. Google search itself was a fast follower.