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Definitely in that bubble. Main product has tanked. So few people use it extensively now. Instagram has been absolutely destroyed by tik tok. As that audience

Definitely in that bubble. Main product has tanked. So few people use it extensively now. Instagram has been absolutely destroyed by tik tok. As that audience grows up, the impact of that colossal defeat will hurt more and more. Buying another success will be near impossible, and they’ve not created anything significant since the original app. No reason to expect them to successfully build something as difficult as a VR platform. They’ve had years to fix the above. They haven’t. Whilst that doesn’t matter for their current earnings, the future looks very bleak, especially when the next recession hits and advertising spend plummets. I do wonder at what point Zuck will step away. I guess sidewards to avoid spooking investors but he’s smart, he knows it’s over.

oblio 4y ago
Facebook is product with a global audience. I doubt you have a good enough holistic overview.
- randomsearch 4y ago
  Maybe, maybe not. I've been downvoted for my analysis but absolutely stand by it and want to double-down for the record, as I think HN is very wrong about this. Worth noting that Facebook's stock is now less than 50% of its peak price, and we're in a bull market. How is that going to look when the recession hits? Whilst I'm sure it will continue to rake in cash for a few years, my point is that the gradient is severely negative and it will accelerate. Tik Tok will overtake Instagram this year, despite the fact that its audience haven't even reach 25 yet. That's _already baked in_ to the demographics. The only way I'm wrong is if Facebook make a big success with a new product in-house, which they have never done. I believe they don't have the ability to do it. Their hiring and their culture are the problem, and you just can't fix culture overnight (esp with the original founder at the helm). Facebook are not Microsoft, Google, or Amazon. They don't have the same culture. The reason they're in the same bracket is their financial success, but it's not an appropriate comparison.
  - oblio 4y ago
    Share price is wildly disconnected from day to day business realities, see Tesla. Facebook's numbers are great: https://www.statista.com/statistics/277229/facebooks-annual-revenue-and-net-income/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/277229/facebooks-annual-... They will probably slow down, but that's a few years in the future. Meta is #34 on the Fortune500, by the time they slow down they could be #20, who knows, #10. That's more than enough to live on for decades. And there's more than enough time to get a new CEO, etc.

oblio 4y ago

Facebook is product with a global audience. I doubt you have a good enough holistic overview.

randomsearch 4y ago
Maybe, maybe not. I've been downvoted for my analysis but absolutely stand by it and want to double-down for the record, as I think HN is very wrong about this. Worth noting that Facebook's stock is now less than 50% of its peak price, and we're in a bull market. How is that going to look when the recession hits? Whilst I'm sure it will continue to rake in cash for a few years, my point is that the gradient is severely negative and it will accelerate. Tik Tok will overtake Instagram this year, despite the fact that its audience haven't even reach 25 yet. That's _already baked in_ to the demographics. The only way I'm wrong is if Facebook make a big success with a new product in-house, which they have never done. I believe they don't have the ability to do it. Their hiring and their culture are the problem, and you just can't fix culture overnight (esp with the original founder at the helm). Facebook are not Microsoft, Google, or Amazon. They don't have the same culture. The reason they're in the same bracket is their financial success, but it's not an appropriate comparison.
- oblio 4y ago
  Share price is wildly disconnected from day to day business realities, see Tesla. Facebook's numbers are great: https://www.statista.com/statistics/277229/facebooks-annual-revenue-and-net-income/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/277229/facebooks-annual-... They will probably slow down, but that's a few years in the future. Meta is #34 on the Fortune500, by the time they slow down they could be #20, who knows, #10. That's more than enough to live on for decades. And there's more than enough time to get a new CEO, etc.