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>Why are we struggling to just say inflation is 100%? I can't find a single item that I normally buy that isn't double the price it was last year. Fruit isn't
by incomingpain 5y ago
>Why are we struggling to just say inflation is 100%? I can't find a single item that I normally buy that isn't double the price it was last year.
Fruit isn't labour or energy intensive. The cycle hasn't come around for them to have raised much at all yet.
>Why are the officials refusing to just say it? We can't fix things if we hide under "good looking" numbers.
Because it's highly political and those official's employment is subject to political whims.
I pulled the nominal pricing on various things that should be near instantly accounting for future inflation. Everything is up 30+% with a few exceptions.
Rice, cocoa, tea, banana, tobacco, wood, peanuts, and potassium chloride? These are probably more related to something else and not inflation.
There are a number of things which seem to be at the average around 8%.
If you average the averages. It comes to around 40%.
When I do so tinkering in a totally not scientific way like excluding the big drop in wood price that is dropping from peaks and the drops not related to inflation for example. It increases the average to about 47%.
What's super interesting. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2
Look at the graph and project money supply using pre-2020 data and you'd expect it to be around 17-18 trillion for today. It's actually around 22 trillion. So probably around 20% higher than it ought to be.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-bala...
There's another 4 trillion coming from covid spending. So there's the other 20%.
Now important to note. This isn't 40% overnight, like in how im checking. These things typically take a few years to adjust. So 8.5% inflation over 4 years is about 40%.
Everything for the most part checks out for a locked in ~40%. This assumes the central banks of the world instantly stop all the money printing and there's no new inflation coming. Which we all know isn't true.