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That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, an

That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time.

hiq 4y ago
> That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. Not sure what you're disagreeing with. Point is, if I can't predict reasonably well what I'll be able to buy in a few months with the currency I'm using, maybe what I'm using is not meant to be a currency. > And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time. I'm sure I can find a time frame over which BTC is up. Not sure that helps much. It's "trending down" since August 2021. It's "trending up" over the last 10 years. What comes next is anyone's guess. Regarding volatility, whenever I look at it, all the sources I can find point to some volatility being at least constant over the past few years (I linked a source in another comment which indicates sustained volatility over the last 7 years). I've seen 3 different ones so far. Do you have one that would indicate otherwise? I could find one[0] but it's pretty bad, it starts with the yearly chart showing that the volatility is not declining, then shows a daily one over 7 days and shows a decline over this period. [0]: https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi...
- eric-hu 4y ago
  I’m not the person you asked, but your previous post mentioned constant, predictable inflation and threw out 2% as an example. I understand that was just a number for illustrative purposes, but the US performances large amounts of quantitative easing twice in the last 20 years. I could probably find a 4 year window in the last 20 years when it didn’t, but the Covid and 2009 QE events increased the m2 money supply so much that it would be silly to ignore.
  - hiq 4y ago
    > that was just a number for illustrative purposes It's more of an ideal, e.g. the ECB targets this. In practice there's a margin of error, the question is how big it is. Once this error (for the currency you use, e.g. USD I assume, given your comment) and the volatility of BTC are close enough, we can consider BTC as competitive as a currency. Until then it's not.
    - eric-hu 4y ago
      While I’m bullish on BTC, my personal spending choices fully agree with you as I don’t perform any spending transactions with it. That said, I’m watching these developments closely because the M2 growth from QE does alarm me, as someone whose life savings were earned in USD. Even hedging inflation with investment in the U.S. and global stock markets seems to share the same risk of poor USD monetary policy.
  - bubbleRefuge 4y ago
    This is bogus. there is no historical correlation between M2 money supply and inflation.

hiq 4y ago

> That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. Not sure what you're disagreeing with. Point is, if I can't predict reasonably well what I'll be able to buy in a few months with the currency I'm using, maybe what I'm using is not meant to be a currency. > And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time. I'm sure I can find a time frame over which BTC is up. Not sure that helps much. It's "trending down" since August 2021. It's "trending up" over the last 10 years. What comes next is anyone's guess. Regarding volatility, whenever I look at it, all the sources I can find point to some volatility being at least constant over the past few years (I linked a source in another comment which indicates sustained volatility over the last 7 years). I've seen 3 different ones so far. Do you have one that would indicate otherwise? I could find one[0] but it's pretty bad, it starts with the yearly chart showing that the volatility is not declining, then shows a daily one over 7 days and shows a decline over this period. [0]: https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi...

eric-hu 4y ago
I’m not the person you asked, but your previous post mentioned constant, predictable inflation and threw out 2% as an example. I understand that was just a number for illustrative purposes, but the US performances large amounts of quantitative easing twice in the last 20 years. I could probably find a 4 year window in the last 20 years when it didn’t, but the Covid and 2009 QE events increased the m2 money supply so much that it would be silly to ignore.
- hiq 4y ago
  > that was just a number for illustrative purposes It's more of an ideal, e.g. the ECB targets this. In practice there's a margin of error, the question is how big it is. Once this error (for the currency you use, e.g. USD I assume, given your comment) and the volatility of BTC are close enough, we can consider BTC as competitive as a currency. Until then it's not.
  - eric-hu 4y ago
    While I’m bullish on BTC, my personal spending choices fully agree with you as I don’t perform any spending transactions with it. That said, I’m watching these developments closely because the M2 growth from QE does alarm me, as someone whose life savings were earned in USD. Even hedging inflation with investment in the U.S. and global stock markets seems to share the same risk of poor USD monetary policy.
- bubbleRefuge 4y ago
  This is bogus. there is no historical correlation between M2 money supply and inflation.