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Volatile by what measure over what time period? If a country, for example, is looking at price-versus-USD on a rolling average over five years and measuring vol

by alfl 4y ago

Volatile by what measure over what time period? If a country, for example, is looking at price-versus-USD on a rolling average over five years and measuring volatility in terms of (positive and negative) variance of price, then the trend line is up-right* and volatility is very low. [Edit: * was up-left, mistakenly.]

nicbou 4y ago
Volatility of bitcoin is low relative to USD?
- jksmith 4y ago
  You want volatile value trending up, or or value going to shit with certainty?
  - hiq 4y ago
    For a currency you're better off with more certainty, e.g. a 2% constant yearly inflation is ideal and allows people to use it as a currency. BTC is also currently down from its peak, no one knows if it's currently "trending up".
    - jksmith 4y ago
      That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time.
      - hiq 4y ago
        > That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. Not sure what you're disagreeing with. Point is, if I can't predict reasonably well what I'll be able to buy in a few months with the currency I'm using, maybe what I'm using is not meant to be a currency. > And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time. I'm sure I can find a time frame over which BTC is up. Not sure that helps much. It's "trending down" since August 2021. It's "trending up" over the last 10 years. What comes next is anyone's guess. Regarding volatility, whenever I look at it, all the sources I can find point to some volatility being at least constant over the past few years (I linked a source in another comment which indicates sustained volatility over the last 7 years). I've seen 3 different ones so far. Do you have one that would indicate otherwise? I could find one[0] but it's pretty bad, it starts with the yearly chart showing that the volatility is not declining, then shows a daily one over 7 days and shows a decline over this period. [0]: https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi...
        eric-hu 4y ago
        I’m not the person you asked, but your previous post mentioned constant, predictable inflation and threw out 2% as an example. I understand that was just a number for illustrative purposes, but the US performances large amounts of quantitative easing twice in the last 20 years. I could probably find a 4 year window in the last 20 years when it didn’t, but the Covid and 2009 QE events increased the m2 money supply so much that it would be silly to ignore.
        hiq 4y ago
        > that was just a number for illustrative purposes It's more of an ideal, e.g. the ECB targets this. In practice there's a margin of error, the question is how big it is. Once this error (for the currency you use, e.g. USD I assume, given your comment) and the volatility of BTC are close enough, we can consider BTC as competitive as a currency. Until then it's not.
        eric-hu 4y ago
        While I’m bullish on BTC, my personal spending choices fully agree with you as I don’t perform any spending transactions with it. That said, I’m watching these developments closely because the M2 growth from QE does alarm me, as someone whose life savings were earned in USD. Even hedging inflation with investment in the U.S. and global stock markets seems to share the same risk of poor USD monetary policy.
        bubbleRefuge 4y ago
        This is bogus. there is no historical correlation between M2 money supply and inflation.
    - nybble41 4y ago
      > BTC is also currently down from its peak… At any given time almost every asset is "down from its peak". It's impossible to be "up from the peak". The best-case scenario is to be at the peak, but that doesn't last. If you bought in at the peak, when it was trading at double the all-time high as of just a month or two prior, then you lost of bunch of money when the price returned to normal. That's a fairly predictable outcome. But before it started shooting up in December of 2020 it had never been above $30k for more than a day or so (if ever), and since then it hasn't gone below $30k, and for the most part has remained above $38k or so despite some rather chaotic market conditions. Over the last two years it's up over 320%. (The S&P 500 is up about 80% over roughly the same time period, measured from its lowest point in March 2020.) IMHO the recent volatility is mostly due to political factors rather than the market. Regulators can't seem to collectively decide whether they want to adopt it themselves, ban it outright, take the hands-off approach, or just impose one unreasonable regulation after another with the goal of forcing it into the mold of the broken systems it was designed to replace. You'd see the same in any other asset class subjected to a similar political environment.
      - hiq 4y ago
        I was just questioning the "trending up" comment that was given without much of a justification. You can add "by 33% (20kUSD) to the "down from its peak" if you prefer. > IMHO the recent volatility is mostly due to political factors rather than the market. If that's accurate, that would indicate that this volatility is not bound to disappear anytime soon. Still, given the incentives to manipulate the market for a profit and the presence of actors such as Tether, I wouldn't discount manipulation as a big part of this volatility.
  - nicbou 4y ago
    That makes no sense. I ask a question and you just answer with a non sequitur that doesn't address anything.
SantalBlush 4y ago
Or to put it more simply, stonks go up.
- jksmith 4y ago
  Yes, crashing up.
  - bannedbybros 4y ago

by alfl 4y ago

nicbou 4y ago

Volatility of bitcoin is low relative to USD?

jksmith 4y ago
You want volatile value trending up, or or value going to shit with certainty?
- hiq 4y ago
  For a currency you're better off with more certainty, e.g. a 2% constant yearly inflation is ideal and allows people to use it as a currency. BTC is also currently down from its peak, no one knows if it's currently "trending up".
  - jksmith 4y ago
    That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time.
    - hiq 4y ago
      > That's way off the mark with regard to purchasing power vs money supply. Check your M2 chart. Not sure what you're disagreeing with. Point is, if I can't predict reasonably well what I'll be able to buy in a few months with the currency I'm using, maybe what I'm using is not meant to be a currency. > And your time frame on BTC is too short. Yes, it's trending up, and also becoming less volatile over time. I'm sure I can find a time frame over which BTC is up. Not sure that helps much. It's "trending down" since August 2021. It's "trending up" over the last 10 years. What comes next is anyone's guess. Regarding volatility, whenever I look at it, all the sources I can find point to some volatility being at least constant over the past few years (I linked a source in another comment which indicates sustained volatility over the last 7 years). I've seen 3 different ones so far. Do you have one that would indicate otherwise? I could find one[0] but it's pretty bad, it starts with the yearly chart showing that the volatility is not declining, then shows a daily one over 7 days and shows a decline over this period. [0]: https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi...
      - eric-hu 4y ago
        I’m not the person you asked, but your previous post mentioned constant, predictable inflation and threw out 2% as an example. I understand that was just a number for illustrative purposes, but the US performances large amounts of quantitative easing twice in the last 20 years. I could probably find a 4 year window in the last 20 years when it didn’t, but the Covid and 2009 QE events increased the m2 money supply so much that it would be silly to ignore.
        hiq 4y ago
        > that was just a number for illustrative purposes It's more of an ideal, e.g. the ECB targets this. In practice there's a margin of error, the question is how big it is. Once this error (for the currency you use, e.g. USD I assume, given your comment) and the volatility of BTC are close enough, we can consider BTC as competitive as a currency. Until then it's not.
        eric-hu 4y ago
        While I’m bullish on BTC, my personal spending choices fully agree with you as I don’t perform any spending transactions with it. That said, I’m watching these developments closely because the M2 growth from QE does alarm me, as someone whose life savings were earned in USD. Even hedging inflation with investment in the U.S. and global stock markets seems to share the same risk of poor USD monetary policy.
        bubbleRefuge 4y ago
        This is bogus. there is no historical correlation between M2 money supply and inflation.
  - nybble41 4y ago
    > BTC is also currently down from its peak… At any given time almost every asset is "down from its peak". It's impossible to be "up from the peak". The best-case scenario is to be at the peak, but that doesn't last. If you bought in at the peak, when it was trading at double the all-time high as of just a month or two prior, then you lost of bunch of money when the price returned to normal. That's a fairly predictable outcome. But before it started shooting up in December of 2020 it had never been above $30k for more than a day or so (if ever), and since then it hasn't gone below $30k, and for the most part has remained above $38k or so despite some rather chaotic market conditions. Over the last two years it's up over 320%. (The S&P 500 is up about 80% over roughly the same time period, measured from its lowest point in March 2020.) IMHO the recent volatility is mostly due to political factors rather than the market. Regulators can't seem to collectively decide whether they want to adopt it themselves, ban it outright, take the hands-off approach, or just impose one unreasonable regulation after another with the goal of forcing it into the mold of the broken systems it was designed to replace. You'd see the same in any other asset class subjected to a similar political environment.
    - hiq 4y ago
      I was just questioning the "trending up" comment that was given without much of a justification. You can add "by 33% (20kUSD) to the "down from its peak" if you prefer. > IMHO the recent volatility is mostly due to political factors rather than the market. If that's accurate, that would indicate that this volatility is not bound to disappear anytime soon. Still, given the incentives to manipulate the market for a profit and the presence of actors such as Tether, I wouldn't discount manipulation as a big part of this volatility.
- nicbou 4y ago
  That makes no sense. I ask a question and you just answer with a non sequitur that doesn't address anything.

SantalBlush 4y ago

Or to put it more simply, stonks go up.

jksmith 4y ago
Yes, crashing up.
- bannedbybros 4y ago