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That's assuming there will be some Russia that can sell it. The future for Russia is to either become a larger North Korea, or splitting up again, like it alre

by trasz 5y ago

That's assuming there will be some Russia that can sell it. The future for Russia is to either become a larger North Korea, or splitting up again, like it already happened with USSR twenty years ago. Ukraine, on the other hand, will get an absurd economical boost thanks to money confiscated from Russia. Or Russia might be forced to provide gas for free as reparations. It's pretty much impossible to predict what is going to happen in the following months at this point.

necovek 5y ago
The most likely outcome is that Putin is out of power in 5-10 years and everything turns to being just what it was prior to this invasion (in terms of working with the Western countries). No money was confiscated from Russia yet (it was only frozen), and it will take long legal battles for that to happen (10+ years). Ukraine will get EU/USA help (it's already getting a ton in weaponry), but nothing can cover for the loss of human life and years lost to emigration and rebuilding.
- trasz 5y ago
  Russian aggressiveness was only tolerated because of its army. Now we know all this military might was just a bluff. There is no point, from the western point of view, to get back to previous state of affairs - especially so given the only important thing Russia provides, the fossil fuels, is being gradually phased out. Also, it’s highly improbable that Russia, as a state, can survive this defeat.
  - necovek 5y ago
    Uhm, what Russian aggressiveness was tolerated? In Ukraine? Even with their fluffs, it is still being tolerated, so I am not sure of your point. The West is reasonably careful to appear as not participating in the conflict, yet it obviously is. I also can't believe that someone would make a claim that "Russia, as a state, can (not) survive this defeat". Like USA cannot survive a defeat in, say... Vietnam? Afghanistan?
    - trasz 5y ago
      In Ukraine, but also Syria, Georgia and a bunch of others. It’s no longer tolerated, as evidenced by sanctions and the vast military aid for Ukraine. As for the defeat: “siloviki” are the core of Russian state. Russia isn’t a country like US or Germany, it’s an artificial entity held together only by force - and that force turned out to be crap. Things will fall apart as soon as Russian society realizes this. Look at what happened to USSR after the failure in Afghanistan, and how destroying Chechnya established Putin as a ruler.
      - necovek 5y ago
        That's funny: Germany was not a single country until late 19th century, when the rise of nation states began. Russia was a nation state long before that (with that meaning that the majority of the population is what would be called a single nation). USA was never a nation state (to its benefit!). All states are held together by "force": witness different parts of Spain or Turkey wanting to secede... While there is an implicit reason for nation states to exist (single language), outside of that, there's nothing natural about them — they are political contraptions kept up by force (economic, political or army force). All the war efforts of Russia in Ukraine are still being tolerated. Getting into war would be not tolerating it (that's how WWs started, by other countries not tolerating German/Austrain attacks on third countries). Anyway, this is becoming very rethorical, and you've so far not supported your claim in any way.
        trasz 4y ago
        Is Germany really held together by force? Was East Germany invaded by West German army? Because that's where the difference comes from: Russia is held together purely by military - not by economy, or culture, or language. Without military force, Russia will fall apart - same way as it did 20 years ago, and for the same reason.

by trasz 5y ago

necovek 5y ago

The most likely outcome is that Putin is out of power in 5-10 years and everything turns to being just what it was prior to this invasion (in terms of working with the Western countries). No money was confiscated from Russia yet (it was only frozen), and it will take long legal battles for that to happen (10+ years). Ukraine will get EU/USA help (it's already getting a ton in weaponry), but nothing can cover for the loss of human life and years lost to emigration and rebuilding.

trasz 5y ago
Russian aggressiveness was only tolerated because of its army. Now we know all this military might was just a bluff. There is no point, from the western point of view, to get back to previous state of affairs - especially so given the only important thing Russia provides, the fossil fuels, is being gradually phased out. Also, it’s highly improbable that Russia, as a state, can survive this defeat.
- necovek 5y ago
  Uhm, what Russian aggressiveness was tolerated? In Ukraine? Even with their fluffs, it is still being tolerated, so I am not sure of your point. The West is reasonably careful to appear as not participating in the conflict, yet it obviously is. I also can't believe that someone would make a claim that "Russia, as a state, can (not) survive this defeat". Like USA cannot survive a defeat in, say... Vietnam? Afghanistan?
  - trasz 5y ago
    In Ukraine, but also Syria, Georgia and a bunch of others. It’s no longer tolerated, as evidenced by sanctions and the vast military aid for Ukraine. As for the defeat: “siloviki” are the core of Russian state. Russia isn’t a country like US or Germany, it’s an artificial entity held together only by force - and that force turned out to be crap. Things will fall apart as soon as Russian society realizes this. Look at what happened to USSR after the failure in Afghanistan, and how destroying Chechnya established Putin as a ruler.
    - necovek 5y ago
      That's funny: Germany was not a single country until late 19th century, when the rise of nation states began. Russia was a nation state long before that (with that meaning that the majority of the population is what would be called a single nation). USA was never a nation state (to its benefit!). All states are held together by "force": witness different parts of Spain or Turkey wanting to secede... While there is an implicit reason for nation states to exist (single language), outside of that, there's nothing natural about them — they are political contraptions kept up by force (economic, political or army force). All the war efforts of Russia in Ukraine are still being tolerated. Getting into war would be not tolerating it (that's how WWs started, by other countries not tolerating German/Austrain attacks on third countries). Anyway, this is becoming very rethorical, and you've so far not supported your claim in any way.
      - trasz 4y ago
        Is Germany really held together by force? Was East Germany invaded by West German army? Because that's where the difference comes from: Russia is held together purely by military - not by economy, or culture, or language. Without military force, Russia will fall apart - same way as it did 20 years ago, and for the same reason.