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> Pretty much any time you make a choice, you are implicitly making a probability calculation, something along the lines of "which of my options has the highest
by webmaven 5y ago
> Pretty much any time you make a choice, you are implicitly making a probability calculation, something along the lines of "which of my options has the highest expected value/probability of success?"
That's not quite right. The calculation is more along the lines of "which of my options has the highest risk-adjusted reward?" A 10% chance of getting $1,000 is more attractive than a 50% chance of getting $100.
It should be noted though that there are other ways to model the decision, such as regret minimization and its variants.
- rcthompson 5y agoIt depends on the choice being made. If you're considering one of several routes on the way to work, you don't care about arrival time, you only care about probability of arriving before a certain time. In any case, the calculation isn't the point. My point is that in any non-trivial choice, you are necessarily making such a calculation, even if only approximately.