5 ms·

Gee, you’d think the Warsaw Pact countries would have thought twice about relying on Russia for energy…

necovek 5y ago
If Russia is able to offer a product at the best price after the wider EU public stops caring about Ukraine (which is inevitable), I am sure most countries will simply go back to buying from Russia. Globalisation simply demands for that to happen, as otherwise, gas will go to non-sanctioning countries who'd suddenly be able to produce products cheaper than sanctioning countries. The only question is how long will this take. Ukrainians will need decades, but rest of the World?
- jleyank 5y ago
  a) Only if what's being offered cannot easily be replaced. b) The Cold War lasted a long time. This was a generational change.
  - necovek 5y ago
    The Cold War was not a war. Thus "cold". Throughout history, we only had a few very long wars.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > The Cold War was not a war. Thus "cold". The Cold War was a war. Thus “war”.
- trasz 5y ago
  That's assuming there will be some Russia that can sell it. The future for Russia is to either become a larger North Korea, or splitting up again, like it already happened with USSR twenty years ago. Ukraine, on the other hand, will get an absurd economical boost thanks to money confiscated from Russia. Or Russia might be forced to provide gas for free as reparations. It's pretty much impossible to predict what is going to happen in the following months at this point.
  - necovek 5y ago
    The most likely outcome is that Putin is out of power in 5-10 years and everything turns to being just what it was prior to this invasion (in terms of working with the Western countries). No money was confiscated from Russia yet (it was only frozen), and it will take long legal battles for that to happen (10+ years). Ukraine will get EU/USA help (it's already getting a ton in weaponry), but nothing can cover for the loss of human life and years lost to emigration and rebuilding.
    - trasz 5y ago
      Russian aggressiveness was only tolerated because of its army. Now we know all this military might was just a bluff. There is no point, from the western point of view, to get back to previous state of affairs - especially so given the only important thing Russia provides, the fossil fuels, is being gradually phased out. Also, it’s highly improbable that Russia, as a state, can survive this defeat.
      - necovek 5y ago
        Uhm, what Russian aggressiveness was tolerated? In Ukraine? Even with their fluffs, it is still being tolerated, so I am not sure of your point. The West is reasonably careful to appear as not participating in the conflict, yet it obviously is. I also can't believe that someone would make a claim that "Russia, as a state, can (not) survive this defeat". Like USA cannot survive a defeat in, say... Vietnam? Afghanistan?
        trasz 5y ago
        In Ukraine, but also Syria, Georgia and a bunch of others. It’s no longer tolerated, as evidenced by sanctions and the vast military aid for Ukraine. As for the defeat: “siloviki” are the core of Russian state. Russia isn’t a country like US or Germany, it’s an artificial entity held together only by force - and that force turned out to be crap. Things will fall apart as soon as Russian society realizes this. Look at what happened to USSR after the failure in Afghanistan, and how destroying Chechnya established Putin as a ruler.

If Russia is able to offer a product at the best price after the wider EU public stops caring about Ukraine (which is inevitable), I am sure most countries will simply go back to buying from Russia. Globalisation simply demands for that to happen, as otherwise, gas will go to non-sanctioning countries who'd suddenly be able to produce products cheaper than sanctioning countries. The only question is how long will this take. Ukrainians will need decades, but rest of the World?

jleyank 5y ago
a) Only if what's being offered cannot easily be replaced. b) The Cold War lasted a long time. This was a generational change.
- necovek 5y ago
  The Cold War was not a war. Thus "cold". Throughout history, we only had a few very long wars.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The Cold War was not a war. Thus "cold". The Cold War was a war. Thus “war”.
trasz 5y ago
That's assuming there will be some Russia that can sell it. The future for Russia is to either become a larger North Korea, or splitting up again, like it already happened with USSR twenty years ago. Ukraine, on the other hand, will get an absurd economical boost thanks to money confiscated from Russia. Or Russia might be forced to provide gas for free as reparations. It's pretty much impossible to predict what is going to happen in the following months at this point.
- necovek 5y ago
  The most likely outcome is that Putin is out of power in 5-10 years and everything turns to being just what it was prior to this invasion (in terms of working with the Western countries). No money was confiscated from Russia yet (it was only frozen), and it will take long legal battles for that to happen (10+ years). Ukraine will get EU/USA help (it's already getting a ton in weaponry), but nothing can cover for the loss of human life and years lost to emigration and rebuilding.
  - trasz 5y ago
    Russian aggressiveness was only tolerated because of its army. Now we know all this military might was just a bluff. There is no point, from the western point of view, to get back to previous state of affairs - especially so given the only important thing Russia provides, the fossil fuels, is being gradually phased out. Also, it’s highly improbable that Russia, as a state, can survive this defeat.
    - necovek 5y ago
      Uhm, what Russian aggressiveness was tolerated? In Ukraine? Even with their fluffs, it is still being tolerated, so I am not sure of your point. The West is reasonably careful to appear as not participating in the conflict, yet it obviously is. I also can't believe that someone would make a claim that "Russia, as a state, can (not) survive this defeat". Like USA cannot survive a defeat in, say... Vietnam? Afghanistan?
      - trasz 5y ago
        In Ukraine, but also Syria, Georgia and a bunch of others. It’s no longer tolerated, as evidenced by sanctions and the vast military aid for Ukraine. As for the defeat: “siloviki” are the core of Russian state. Russia isn’t a country like US or Germany, it’s an artificial entity held together only by force - and that force turned out to be crap. Things will fall apart as soon as Russian society realizes this. Look at what happened to USSR after the failure in Afghanistan, and how destroying Chechnya established Putin as a ruler.