3 ms·
I could believe it, in this[1] sense. "It is possible to draw a black ball from an urn full of white balls, without any tricks" would pretty much upset my entir
by chrisdirkis 4y ago
I could believe it, in this[1] sense. "It is possible to draw a black ball from an urn full of white balls, without any tricks" would pretty much upset my entire epistemic grounding, but with sufficient evidence, I don't see why I would refuse to believe it. Thus, I have no problem assigning it a non-zero (but insanely low) probability.
[1] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6FmqiAgS8h4EJm86s/how-to-convince-me-that-2-2-3 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6FmqiAgS8h4EJm86s/how-to-con...
- emmelaich 4y agoLikewise the odds of drawing the ace of spades from a deck of cards is not 1/52. It is extremely close though.