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> You have to be cautious in knowing what sort of things can trigger an irreversible failure. Sure, but that's a matter of judgement. Pessimists predict failur

> You have to be cautious in knowing what sort of things can trigger an irreversible failure. Sure, but that's a matter of judgement. Pessimists predict failure where success is possible and even likely. So one reasonable definition of a pessimist might be: A pessimist is someone that is bad at predicting the future. In my experience, what we call optimists are often just people with a superior ability to see what is possible, usually based on intelligence, experience, and knowledge. They usually are the first to recognize that the world has changed in some important way, creating an opportunity for improvement.

McLaren_Ferrari 4y ago
> In my experience, what we call optimists are often just people with a superior ability to see what is possible, usually based on intelligence, experience, and knowledge. They usually are the first to recognize that the world has changed in some important way, creating an opportunity for improvement. Or maybe, just maybe. You don't see all the optimists who crashed and burned, and successful optimists being rare creatures given that they got past the great filter tend to get all the press and accolades as well as attention . So people look at them trying to dissect their life and pick their brain trying to find the one thing that make them go past the great filter whereas it's most likely just luck and survivorship bias. Optimism shouldn't be ever taken into consideration as a predictor of success, that would leave lots of people bitter and desperate when they don't make it past the great filter. Optimism and the good mood you have when you are in an optimist state is itself the reward, that's about it. The idea that everything is possible and all is up for grabs gives the brain lots of pleasure and that is a win to be enjoyed even if you fall victim of the great filter later on. An example is people watching with wide eyes Reusable rocket launches imagining they'd live on Mars in 20 years, or those visiting cryonics centers imagining how they'll beat death or Level 5 cars autonomy. Such goals are 100% guaranteed bullshit but the pleasure that people feel while imagining those things is real, it's very important for humans to gaslight ourselves into believing great things are possible, if you can do that for long enough then at some point death will arrive and the problem of finding meaning would take care of itself in a sense. The leadership of a visionary such as Elon Musk in this field appears crystal clear. The only doubt I have is that all the above should fall under the umbrella of religion/cults, not entrepreneurship. Unfortunately there is lot of social stigma around religion , cults and tarots.
Jensson 4y ago
Optimists are mostly people like crypto hodl crowd or sales people who tries to convince you that everything will get better if you just buy their product or people who fall for MLM scams or those who buys lottery tickets etc. They will call you a pessimist if you disagree with them, and tells you to be more optimistic. In my experience this kind of optimist is way more common than the "sees real world opportunities" kind. Most people are not optimists though, if you try to sell them an opportunity they will scrutinize it and most likely refuse the offer unless you are someone they trust even if they would benefit.

McLaren_Ferrari 4y ago

> In my experience, what we call optimists are often just people with a superior ability to see what is possible, usually based on intelligence, experience, and knowledge. They usually are the first to recognize that the world has changed in some important way, creating an opportunity for improvement. Or maybe, just maybe. You don't see all the optimists who crashed and burned, and successful optimists being rare creatures given that they got past the great filter tend to get all the press and accolades as well as attention . So people look at them trying to dissect their life and pick their brain trying to find the one thing that make them go past the great filter whereas it's most likely just luck and survivorship bias. Optimism shouldn't be ever taken into consideration as a predictor of success, that would leave lots of people bitter and desperate when they don't make it past the great filter. Optimism and the good mood you have when you are in an optimist state is itself the reward, that's about it. The idea that everything is possible and all is up for grabs gives the brain lots of pleasure and that is a win to be enjoyed even if you fall victim of the great filter later on. An example is people watching with wide eyes Reusable rocket launches imagining they'd live on Mars in 20 years, or those visiting cryonics centers imagining how they'll beat death or Level 5 cars autonomy. Such goals are 100% guaranteed bullshit but the pleasure that people feel while imagining those things is real, it's very important for humans to gaslight ourselves into believing great things are possible, if you can do that for long enough then at some point death will arrive and the problem of finding meaning would take care of itself in a sense. The leadership of a visionary such as Elon Musk in this field appears crystal clear. The only doubt I have is that all the above should fall under the umbrella of religion/cults, not entrepreneurship. Unfortunately there is lot of social stigma around religion , cults and tarots.

Jensson 4y ago

Optimists are mostly people like crypto hodl crowd or sales people who tries to convince you that everything will get better if you just buy their product or people who fall for MLM scams or those who buys lottery tickets etc. They will call you a pessimist if you disagree with them, and tells you to be more optimistic. In my experience this kind of optimist is way more common than the "sees real world opportunities" kind. Most people are not optimists though, if you try to sell them an opportunity they will scrutinize it and most likely refuse the offer unless you are someone they trust even if they would benefit.