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Russia to Cut Gas to Poland and Bulgaria in Major Escalation

16 points by IdEntities 4y ago

pettycashstash2 4y ago
Ahh. I consider this to be pivotal moment. This will force nato countries to rapidly seek alternate energy sources, and they have likely already been doing that. Russia is making a large bet. We will see what will happen as this progresses westward. I’m betting energy pain will hurt western economies , but Russia will have forced itself from those energy markets. These folks are creating a death spiral for their own economy of their own making. Let’s not forget that also Finland and Sweden set to announce plans to join Nato soon.
- simonblack 4y ago
  I’m betting energy pain will hurt western economies , but Russia will have forced itself from those energy markets. For Europe, the aim is not just replace that Russian gas/energy from elsewhere, but to get that energy/gas at a similar cheap rate. This is something they will not be able to do. And that means that the European economies will be non-competitive with their exports, especially against China, in their long-term future. For Russia, the loss of the the European export sales will eventually be made up by the increase of sales to the East. That will take roughly 3 years. In that 3-year interim, the loss of some sales will be made up, more or less, by the increased prices of the remaining tapering-off sales to Europe. At the end of the day, I see Russia as losing somewhat in the short term, but Europe losing big-time in the long term.
  - trasz 4y ago
    It will hurt only the EU the exports that 1. Are manufactured in EU and 2. In a way that requires large amounts of gas. For Russia, the loss of European sales will eventually be made up by East, sure - except they were selling gas to China below cost even before the war, and now, because they can no longer sell it to the West, they will have to lower the price even more. And at the end of the day, gas will be slowly phased out anyway, replaced by green energy, leaving Russia without any significant exports at all.
Bostonian 4y ago
I'm not Polish, but I'll guess that the Poles will think that higher energy prices are a small cost compared to destruction Russia could wreak on them without a strong NATO alliance, as seen in Ukraine.
- trasz 4y ago
  At this point everyone is aware that Russian military is a joke; they pose a terrible threat to civilians, but not to... pretty much anything with a working air force.

16 points by IdEntities 4y ago

Ahh. I consider this to be pivotal moment. This will force nato countries to rapidly seek alternate energy sources, and they have likely already been doing that. Russia is making a large bet. We will see what will happen as this progresses westward. I’m betting energy pain will hurt western economies , but Russia will have forced itself from those energy markets. These folks are creating a death spiral for their own economy of their own making. Let’s not forget that also Finland and Sweden set to announce plans to join Nato soon.

simonblack 4y ago
I’m betting energy pain will hurt western economies , but Russia will have forced itself from those energy markets. For Europe, the aim is not just replace that Russian gas/energy from elsewhere, but to get that energy/gas at a similar cheap rate. This is something they will not be able to do. And that means that the European economies will be non-competitive with their exports, especially against China, in their long-term future. For Russia, the loss of the the European export sales will eventually be made up by the increase of sales to the East. That will take roughly 3 years. In that 3-year interim, the loss of some sales will be made up, more or less, by the increased prices of the remaining tapering-off sales to Europe. At the end of the day, I see Russia as losing somewhat in the short term, but Europe losing big-time in the long term.
- trasz 4y ago
  It will hurt only the EU the exports that 1. Are manufactured in EU and 2. In a way that requires large amounts of gas. For Russia, the loss of European sales will eventually be made up by East, sure - except they were selling gas to China below cost even before the war, and now, because they can no longer sell it to the West, they will have to lower the price even more. And at the end of the day, gas will be slowly phased out anyway, replaced by green energy, leaving Russia without any significant exports at all.

Bostonian 4y ago

I'm not Polish, but I'll guess that the Poles will think that higher energy prices are a small cost compared to destruction Russia could wreak on them without a strong NATO alliance, as seen in Ukraine.

trasz 4y ago
At this point everyone is aware that Russian military is a joke; they pose a terrible threat to civilians, but not to... pretty much anything with a working air force.